wow
Member
Almost get the phase in with the polar s/w that really ramped it up on yesterday's 12z run.. Still, the setup is primed.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
griteater
Member
18z GFS was an awesome run storm wave wise. No wave dampening as the big wave coming into California was spaced far enough behind. That's what a Strong El Nino Gulf Low should look like, we were just too late with the cold press out front into the NEast states.
Keeping the same general look, that’s all that matters, still a 50/50 and southern stream wave in place, each run fluctuating but keeping those features 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Welcome buddy. Glad to see you over here.So this is where everybody is. Hello.Hopefully I bring the good mojo. Weird not having a dancing blue turd as my avatar. lol.
What a freaking classic "radar"
L
you can already see the trend though. The cold just isn’t gonna get here in time. A real shame cause that was a perfect storm track.
I don’t see any trends per that H5 map… I just see lots of bouncing around of the longwave pattern
What would you say the chances are honestly of everything lining up? We know the storm is gonna be there pretty much. So what are the chances of the cold?
There are absolutely no trends saying that 8-9 days out. The H5 map still looks good and all of the pieces are still there. Details will not be ironed out for a few more days
Lining something up in the SE is always a difficult task. We at least have something to track
Cad Wedge NC
Member
What trend are looking at???
You got to keep emotional swings per model runs in check. You are speaking in way to many absolutes. Today is the 9th, the storm is days ahead of us. There is no “was”. Maybe on that run, but pay attention to the players on the field, not just surface value things the models are showing.
The models are remarkably consistent on the southern stream wave across the suites and r2r but everything else is chaos
WolfpackHomer91
Member
AGAIN , a "TREND" is 4-5 runs in a row of something being CONSISTENT in that same solution. GOOD or BAD. This thing has no trends at all good or bad, it has shown about 3 different solutions in last 5 cycles.
Look at it this way - for more than 90% of the days of the year the chances for accumulating snow for the locations occupied by those in this forum are 0%. We are tracking one of those 10% of days when the chances are greater than 0%.
Of those 10% of days, probably only 1-2% actually work out, and it's been 0% the past couple years. There's nothing more that can definitively be said at this point.
At this range, even if every model showed a blizzard it wouldn't increase my confidence any further because I would know major changes are going to happen and that blizzard could easily go poof in the next run, come back several days later, or remain gone forever in the amount of time left before verification. This is a tough hobby, but perspective and realistic expectations help.
This was probably easier a few days ago when the trough was further west and the ridge was going up the entire WC into AK/NWT. Now with the undercutting and closing of that ridge and energy interaction between the WC trough and the polar energy coming I'd suspect we keep getting these wild r2r changes through the weekend at least. I'd think by the 0z Monday run the pattern along the WC and western Canada should be pretty settled so we can get a better picture across the conus