Losing the -EPO would be a killer.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Parker
Member
Well we went from 2 members to 5 members so you’re saying there’s a chance ?
I’m just keeping an eye for fun. It’s been so bad for my backyard since December of 2017 and we had been getting spoiled with at least one solid event a winter for many years. This is by far the longest drought we’ve had that I can remember but thankfully we live close to the mountains.
Maybe we can keep trending in the right direction. I’m like many of you on here, I’ll hold on until it’s peak severe season.
I’m just keeping an eye for fun. It’s been so bad for my backyard since December of 2017 and we had been getting spoiled with at least one solid event a winter for many years. This is by far the longest drought we’ve had that I can remember but thankfully we live close to the mountains.
Maybe we can keep trending in the right direction. I’m like many of you on here, I’ll hold on until it’s peak severe season.
-epo isn't a dominant feature as you move forward with the mjo
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, this ok pattern to me seems to be 100% Atlantic driven imo . Pacific frankly still sucks to me. Trough hangs out near the west coast not the Aleutians (as always), and is almost zonal flow across the US. We get a quick Alaskan Ridge but it's in and out like a McDonald's drive through. MJO again refuses to get to phase 8. Pacific just won't work for us. Hopefully it changes, but why?
The long-range (late February/March) pattern forecasts are likely to be especially uncertain given the growing likelihood of a long-lasting SSWE.
VP charts look like phase 8, with weak rising nosing into Africa 
iGRXY
Member
MJO definitely looks to be going into Phase 8. We don't need the Pacific to be the biggest player here. You spike a +PNA and we will be cold and dry with everything being situated along the gulf and east coast. the Atlantic being the biggest player with even a neutral to slightly +PNA and -EPO is more than enough for us to score.
Thank you for pointing this out. It’s been mentioned numerous times this winter that the RMM charts are just not accurate on the MJO progression this year. This definitely shows it going to phase 8
Interesting evolution on the control run
consider me underwhelmed? expected like 30% more output based on the op run
Forevertothee
Member
Exactly. And do we really want to be in the bullseye this many days out? Nope. At least it appears we have something legit to track soon. And it appeared there was more energy on it's heels with temps supportive of some fun.
Pilotwx
Member
Yep, when you start to hear key words and phrases like " we will have to wait and see, we dont know yet, possible, and this is not a forecast, which all are true , but it is a sign that we are trying to be let down easy.
Lilj4425
Member
So this is where everybody is. Hello. 
Hopefully I bring the good mojo. Weird not having a dancing blue turd as my avatar. lol.
Hopefully I bring the good mojo. Weird not having a dancing blue turd as my avatar. lol.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yall buckle up, I am not the best in here but it looks good to me........NC CAD zones that is
packfan98
Moderator
I thought so too, but it never flips those outside the foothills over unfortunately.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
yea definitely on surface maps CAD regions and VA only
Not that it matters on an op GFS run 216 hours out, but the soundings are extremely close on that for basically west of Hwy 1