Pattern February 2024

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Ethan80963]

View attachment 145826View attachment 145827

What did it look like compared to last run?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What did it look like compared to last run?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well, this might do it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not bad. Welp goodnight, here’s to hoping for some good 12z runs

 

[Forevertothee]

Conditions in the south as the L in the gulf is taking shape at HR 240.

 

[hky1894]

Euro and canadian ensembles improved on overnight run at a quick glance for the 2/18-2/20 threat. Unbothered by gfs suite, it has performed terrible recently.

Sent from my SM-A236U using Tapatalk

 

[rburrel2]

It would appear the Euro control had lots of sleet and freezing rain as well, not shown in that snow mean.

 

[BullCityWx]

Not bad.

 

[rburrel2]

Not bad.


View attachment 145845

That 360hr threat might have some legs too. It's been flashing on the GEFS and CMCE as well.

 

[KyloG]

This was supposed to be our super terrific pattern. But someone made an apt point…the cold isn’t here. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow…just makes it harder.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This was supposed to be our super terrific pattern. But someone made an apt point…the cold isn’t here. Doesn’t mean it can’t snow…just makes it harder.

View attachment 145849

Gefs trend is ugly, less 50/50, faster pacific

 

[KyloG]

Gefs trend is ugly, less 50/50, faster pacific View attachment 145850

I still think the cold eventually dumps in the conus and we finally get something.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Gefs trend is ugly, less 50/50, faster pacific View attachment 145850

Looking at the individual runs. So many of them ruin our cold feed with the northern stream shortwave that runs over top of the southern shortwave. If we can reverse that trend better cold feed can be possible like the Euro is showing

 

[hky1894]

Looking at the individual runs. So many of them ruin our cold feed with the northern stream shortwave that runs over top of the southern shortwave. If we can reverse that trend better cold feed can be possible like the Euro is showing

I would trust euro and its ensembles more than gfs. Just look at how the gfs finally trended the valentines day threat northward more in line with euro guidance finally. Gfs has been getting its ass kicked last few weeks

Sent from my SM-A236U using Tapatalk

 

[AJ1013]

Meanwhile a town on the Mexican border with an average high of 68F in February is cashing in tomorrow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Key from what I’m noticing to get the pattern going after and more favorable for that D9-10 threat, is progress the trough in the PNW east at D7, and extend it into the Atlantic trough, and have a height field that leans NW to SE, 06z EPS looked better for that, even more so then the 00z run
The GEFS gets it hung out west to long, and the height field is more zonal, and it becomes a weakness, for more pac related energy
Conclusion: we need that piece to move east, quickly, if it gets hung out west, it’s gonna link with the PT moving east, and the 50/50 would move out quick because it encourages a zonal look after, we need it to interact with the Atlantic trough and become a extension of the ATL trough, so there’s a renewed cold feed

 

[Mitch West]

Key from what I’m noticing to get the pattern going after and more favorable for that D9-10 threat, is progress the trough in the PNW east at D7, and extend it into the Atlantic trough, and have a height field that leans NW to SE, 06z EPS looked better for that, even more so then the 00z runView attachment 145854
The GEFS gets it hung out west to long, and the height field is more zonal, and it becomes a weakness, for more pac related energy View attachment 145855
Conclusion: we need that piece to move east, quickly, if it gets hung out west, it’s gonna link with the PT moving east, and the 50/50 would move out quick because it encourages a zonal look after, we need it to interact with the Atlantic trough and become a extension of the ATL trough, so there’s a renewed cold feed

Took me some comparing to see it, but now I see exactly what you're talking about comparing the op GFS with the Euro.

 

[1300m]

Key from what I’m noticing to get the pattern going after and more favorable for that D9-10 threat, is progress the trough in the PNW east at D7, and extend it into the Atlantic trough, and have a height field that leans NW to SE, 06z EPS looked better for that, even more so then the 00z runView attachment 145854
The GEFS gets it hung out west to long, and the height field is more zonal, and it becomes a weakness, for more pac related energy View attachment 145855
Conclusion: we need that piece to move east, quickly, if it gets hung out west, it’s gonna link with the PT moving east, and the 50/50 would move out quick because it encourages a zonal look after, we need it to interact with the Atlantic trough and become a extension of the ATL trough, so there’s a renewed cold feed

I 100% agree, great analysis.

About the most encouraging thing I can say at the moment is, as you noted, even the ensembles are still oscillating significantly with this so there's still time for it to correct the way we need, or not (as has been the case so many times in recent years).

 

[KyloG]

Weeklies did a pretty good job in the extended...overnight EPS v/s the weeklies from almost 2 weeks ago. Not bad.