• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

gem_mslp_pcpn_us_38.png

Suppressed but lots of potential.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Great Lakes Low ruins the CMC run
View attachment 145811
Click to expand...
Looks like it’s related to the actually tropospheric PV itself. Could be a good thing if in the right spot for a phase, since it’s bringing down intense cold, but I’d rather have that out of there or ahead of the southern stream wave. Keep the lakes clean 69AF3796-E4CF-4714-84BC-D56AE804875C.png662B6873-9F92-41D6-8934-B5ED43DC673F.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like it’s related to the actually tropospheric PV itself. Could be a good thing if in the right spot for a phase, since it’s bringing down intense cold, but I’d rather have that out of there or ahead of the southern stream wave. Keep the lakes clean View attachment 145812
Click to expand...
Yeah that thing was dragging some real cold with it. But I agree. Either get it out of there or let it feed our 50/50 before our SS wave kicks
 
griteater said:
Everything about this setup has a Deep South to Southern Mid-Atlantic look when viewing the ensemble means at 500mb etc....and has been that way all along. The quicker and farther north GFS solution looks like an outlier right now, but we'll see
Click to expand...
Tomer burg seems to agree as well. The angle of the subtropical jet and the entrance is very far south, unusually far south.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like it’s related to the actually tropospheric PV itself. Could be a good thing if in the right spot for a phase, since it’s bringing down intense cold, but I’d rather have that out of there or ahead of the southern stream wave. Keep the lakes clean View attachment 145812View attachment 145815
Click to expand...
It could have been a banger if the TPV near the lakes is 12-24 hours slower or not quite as deep too. Sufficient cold was already in place.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Tomer burg seems to agree as well. The angle of the subtropical jet and the entrance is very far south, unusually far south.
Click to expand...
Yeah a lot of times we have a wave coming in from Oregon and we're trying to get it to drop south of us of course. Having the low latitude starting point (Baja or even south of Baja, which is crazy) gives us the extra wiggle room. What you'd like to see here I'd say is for this to be a healthy wave that moves NE from S Baja and just plow right into the 5050 low anomalies, and then be forced to slow down and just slide east. Really, much like that Euro Ctrl run today, but with a healthier wave...and with the cold temperatures holding firm due to the cold core 5050 low
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top