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Pattern February 2024

Now this is a winter storm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
 
Snowfan said:
View attachment 145749
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  • Slight risk of heavy snow over the Southern and Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Feb 18-21.


While there is greater uncertainty in the northward extent of storm track as it enters the Atlantic, there is support for accumulating and potentially heavy snow on the backside of the low. Increased signals are depicted in the GEFS based SWE tool over Central and Southern Appalachians and a slight risk of heavy snow is issued for Feb 18-21. This snow area may be expanded further northward and also include lower elevation areas of the eastern seaboard in upcoming outlooks once ensembles get a better handle on the eventual storm track. Over the northeastern CONUS, a slight risk of high winds remains issued for Feb 16-20 given persistent troughing and surface low pressure forecast over the Canadian Maritimes which may induce strengthening pressure gradients. Similar to the snow risk further south, this wind hazard is subject to change in upcoming outlooks based on the aforementioned storm track over the Atlantic later in the period.
 
There goes GFS again with that trailing cutoff low on the 19th. I’m a big fan of this proposition but there’s no way you could put any stock In that at this lead. That thing could be in Flint Michigan or gone completely come verification. But I like it!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t know if this should be exciting but the GFS has the weakest height suppression out of any model and still produces a winter storm for CAD areas… View attachment 145774
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Yeah. And with those runs a day or two ago with snow into the GA/FL border the 500mb pattern left a lot to be desired but still produced
 
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