griteater
Member
Would be nice to get a storm on the board for some folks in the early part of this better pattern.
Moving ahead after that storm potential around next weekend, the GEPS out to day 10 here has the best representation for where I think we are headed, though it may be a little quick. Each Pacific Jet extension this winter has been quite strong (Strong El Nino at work), and this next one arriving in California / Baja late next week is no exception. But the jet should back off in the Feb 22-24 timeframe and calm down with the heavy low anomalies pounding into the west coast. As it backs off, I think we are going to see a legit retrograding block that runs SW toward Hudson Bay, with the N Atlantic getting blocked up (Edit: and I think the blocking will be slow to rot away)....2 reasons for this: 1) we've moved more toward a traditional blocking origin location (Scandinavia), and 2) trends with the stratosphere have continued to improve where we are now seeing not only good chances for an official SSW, but also, a prolonged period where the SPV doesn't recover in strength.
That type of evolution would set the stage for a big KU, east coast nor'easter type storm, with us in the south / southeast also having a shot on either side (all of this in the late Feb / early Mar timeframe). A nice sequence for us in the SE associated with Atlantic Blocking has occurred in the past where there has been a nor'easter > suppressed storm track behind the nor'easter > SE winter storm. Off the top of my head, I know Feb 12, 2010 and Feb 15, 1969 were both like that
Moving ahead after that storm potential around next weekend, the GEPS out to day 10 here has the best representation for where I think we are headed, though it may be a little quick. Each Pacific Jet extension this winter has been quite strong (Strong El Nino at work), and this next one arriving in California / Baja late next week is no exception. But the jet should back off in the Feb 22-24 timeframe and calm down with the heavy low anomalies pounding into the west coast. As it backs off, I think we are going to see a legit retrograding block that runs SW toward Hudson Bay, with the N Atlantic getting blocked up (Edit: and I think the blocking will be slow to rot away)....2 reasons for this: 1) we've moved more toward a traditional blocking origin location (Scandinavia), and 2) trends with the stratosphere have continued to improve where we are now seeing not only good chances for an official SSW, but also, a prolonged period where the SPV doesn't recover in strength.
That type of evolution would set the stage for a big KU, east coast nor'easter type storm, with us in the south / southeast also having a shot on either side (all of this in the late Feb / early Mar timeframe). A nice sequence for us in the SE associated with Atlantic Blocking has occurred in the past where there has been a nor'easter > suppressed storm track behind the nor'easter > SE winter storm. Off the top of my head, I know Feb 12, 2010 and Feb 15, 1969 were both like that
Last edited:
