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Pattern February 2024

This is why I feel we need to have the PV consolidate further to the east. With it stretched and split into several pieces, the upper level convergence gets interrupted. That's another reason I favor later -- from roughly the 20th ish -- onward as that's when the EPS and CMCE have a better congealing of the PV further east.
I still like this period. If we can pull this look forward many will be salivating soon I bet.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8171200.png


ecmwf-deterministic-namer-mslp_anom-8171200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-dew2m_c-8171200.png
 
Pattern and analogs from NOAA CPC's 8-14 Day Outlook for Feb 15-21, centered on Feb 18 (Note: you may want to post stuff related to specific dates in the Reminiscing Thread - I feel the images here are applicable, but I don't want to muddy the thread with analog date postings)

Feb 7 CPC 1.gif
Feb 7 CPC 2.gif
 
A few things to keep in mind over the coming days. This isn't the same as the last few nina Febs where the SER is predisposed to appear. If we get the pv split high latitude blocking will be the general flavor. The pattern should retrograde as the jet retracts severely and renewed rockies/WC ridging should take shape later in the month. We may see a temporary warm period as the trough out west finally releases inland if the nao isn't strong enough to mitigate a temporary enhancement to the STJ and tendency for it to rise north, if we follow a p7-3 mjo progression this cold, stormy, potential snow pattern can easily push into March well south.
 
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