That’s a stout cad sig on the EPS 2mt 
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
coldfront22
Member
Hopefully the ops will start keying in on what the ensembles are showing in future runs.
That 2/13-14 system can get really really interesting in a hurry as models resolve the timing and the vortex or lack of over the NE. Realistically it should be a cold rain with a follow up system 2/16-17 being more interesting. With the euro being close to a last second phase though it has to make your eyebrows raise
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I think this is one we want held back. If it pops out too soon there's going to be a carcass of the SER and it'll be biased north like the gfs or bodily pulled into the meat grinder like the cmc. I would assume that the eps members with snow in the time frame are the slowest
RoddyPiper
Member
CAD just isn't a really good setup for snow in the Southeast. It can set the tone for ground temps, but getting those 850/925 temps where they need to be with solely CAD influence is a pretty hard thing to do. You need cold air funneling in from the NW and sliding east.
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhh it depends. Usually the setup for CAD has a heighten field out ahead of the storm which helps drive it north before relocating to the coast. In this instance the heights across the east as depicted are lowered as you have troughs all across the 50/50 region and the southern United States due to El Niño influence
This is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
Just wait until the pattern starts to retrograde and the big western ridge returnsThis is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
And, a low amp 8 for the cherry on top:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That's interesting, the model backed off, now it's back at it again. I believe it did the same thing earlier. Regardless, the polar vortex is going to get smacked around awhile.This is the deepest dive yet on the EURO ext. Maybe we really can lock in the -NAO and bring March in like a lion.
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It's really not impossible that we are tracking snow threats to 3/15 in different parts of the region. It's hard to find the way this pattern gets out of some combo of -nao/-epo/+pna
griteater
Member
For us SE of the Apps, the best setups are CAD combined with it being cold everywhere (surface on up). CAD isn't limited to ice / sleet storms. But CAD can help to give us folks SE of the Apps that extra bit of wiggle room to ensure a winter storm vs. a rainy one
Yep. It backed off quite a bit on yesterday's run. Of course, it should be noted that only a few days before the January SSW, it backed off a reversal at the last minute. Of interest, unlike in January, the PV doesn't look like it will rapidly recover this time.
ECMWF | Charts
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rburrel2
Member
Yea, especially important in Feb/March to help negate boundary layer issues from sun angle.
Ideally, I look for a banana high here at the tail end of CAD country.
griteater
Member
griteater
Member
That has a Feb-Mar 1960 look to it where the Atlantic side is dominant and doing its thing
Some of the Carolina Piedmont and SC upstate best snowstorms have come from CAD