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Pattern February 2024

BullCityWx said:
Today is the last day for the next fifteen days where the NAO and AO are bordering positive/neutral ccording to the EPS. By tomorrow, they are both going to -2(out of 7).
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GEFS indices:

PNA - Going mostly positive, with a trend towards neutral in the LR. ***Would rather see this stay strongly positive
NAO - Averaging ever so slightly negative throughout. ***Have no idea if this would be a player
AO - Falling off a cliff (negative). ***You would think our side of the world will get cold


 
MichaelJ said:
With the TPV as indicated is how the people east of the apps get the very cold air, question is will it also suppress the storm track and at this point it looks like it
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Yeah, when you look at the anomolies it looks great but when you look at heights your like...uh oh.

But, I also don't think it's winter over....we need cold to get in and get entrenched, which it does and then we need some tweaks and a whole lot of luck.
 
FallsLake said:
GEFS indices:

PNA - Going mostly positive, with a trend towards neutral in the LR. ***Would rather see this stay strongly positive
NAO - Averaging ever so slightly negative throughout. ***Have no idea if this would be a player
AO - Falling off a cliff (negative). ***You would think our side of the world will get cold


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Actually you kinda want there to be fluctuating in the positive territory on the PNA. Often times when it stays strongly positive is actually when there is legitimate suppression concerns.
 
Chazwin said:
Actually you kinda want there to be fluctuating in the positive territory on the PNA. Often times when it stays strongly positive is actually when there is legitimate suppression concerns.
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like this
gfs_apcpn_seus_64.png
 
KyloG said:
I assume we still need it further east? This is a colder pattern but sure seems like the PV location is tricky.

View attachment 145205

View attachment 145204
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Agreed. It looked to be moving into position on most members at the very end of the 00z EPS run, but it looks to me like it would be after the 20th before we would really establish a "great" pattern for those east of the Apps, with the usual caveats of this is 15+ days away and will this ever actually happen.
 
KyloG said:
We wasted a very far south deep ull the past couple of days and then you look at another in southern Texas and you wonder what would happen if we had just a little luck.

View attachment 145222
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That's what has been so frustrating to me lately. We keep tracking the perfect pattern, one we only get a handful of times in a decade, but yet we usually snow most winters with some setups that frankly look like garbage. I've revisited some of the old threads from several years ago and I'm shocked -- and honestly annoyed -- at how we (including myself) were so confident in setups that ended up delivering that looked way worse than ones we've tracked recently that didn't deliver.
 
Another CAD storm setting up on the 12z GFS. High pressure funnelling in the cold air. Let's see how far south it gets.
prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
 
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