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Pattern February 2024

KyloG said:
It’s cute and all to gaze at the day 12+ ensembles but eventually we going to need some op runs with the magic.

This ain’t it.

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let's try this one again....pattern change is cute and all until the OP's start spewing snow where we want it. Last time I ran my mouth on this the GFS heard me.
 
KyloG said:
let's try this one again....pattern change is cute and all until the OP's start spewing snow where we want it. Last time I ran my mouth on this the GFS heard me.
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I still agree with you in principle. I’m tired of seeing pretty ensemble means. I want to see a promising pattern with the key features in place inside D5 on the deterministics.
 
KyloG said:
Getting difficult for me to poo poo the upcoming pattern change...the EPS has brought this to day 11-12 now and looks legit. Displaced Aleutian low. One thing I want to see is lipstick red over AK.

Past 4 EPS runs centered on 2/16

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Yeah, even with these heights over Alaska, they’re modeled a big warm up next weekend… Fairbanks for example is modeled to have highs in the 20s by the end of next weekend. Typically when you see a warm up like that in the interior of Alaska this time of the year, the cold is headed southeast
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, even with these heights over Alaska, they’re modeled a big warm up next weekend… Fairbanks for example is modeled to have highs in the 20s by the end of next weekend. Typically when you see a warm up like that in the interior of Alaska this time of the year, the cold is headed southeast
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Like a 50 degree warm up.


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1300m said:
I still agree with you in principle. I’m tired of seeing pretty ensemble means. I want to see a promising pattern with the key features in place inside D5 on the deterministics.
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I don't want to overthink/analyze day 10+ GFS op runs but they diverge so much from it's ensembles. The op day 10+ stretches/splits the PV and sends a piece to Quebec/Newfoundland and sends the other part to British Columbia. That would be awful.

But it's the OP, it doesn't show what we want so we toss...
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_barbs-8171200.png
 
KyloG said:
I don't want to overthink/analyze day 10+ GFS op runs but they diverge so much from it's ensembles. The op day 10+ stretches/splits the PV and sends a piece to Quebec/Newfoundland and sends the other part to British Columbia. That would be awful.

But it's the OP, it doesn't show what we want so we toss...
View attachment 145106
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Regardless of what it shows, I think a heavy lean on the EPS Mean is the way to go for now. That's usually a good play anytime, but especially so with El Nino / Split Flow / High Latitude Blocking. Also, I feel like the Euro suite has had the hot hand this winter when models have diverged.
 
griteater said:
Regardless of what it shows, I think a heavy lean on the EPS Mean is the way to go for now. That's usually a good play anytime, but especially so with El Nino / Split Flow / High Latitude Blocking. Also, I feel like the Euro suite has had the hot hand this winter when models have diverged.
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Can we not clutch the GEPS...I like this one. I can only imagine the snow mean.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-8344000.png
 
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