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Pattern February 2024

Wild Weather Monger said:
The uncertainty in the modeling seems apparent. Past day 5, it's all over the place.

FWIW anywhere in or near the COD should be pretty good. No?
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Yes or even low amp 5 and 6. Now keep in mind that I’m speaking for winter storms in my area but there have been a number of significant winter storms over the years in low amp 5-6, which was honestly surprising to me to me when I looked it up. Where we really don’t want to be here in the southeast is high amp 4-6. February 2021 had really everything going for us with a
-AO/-NAO/+ PNA combo except the MJO going high amp phase 6 when it had been low amp or COD for the two previous months. If you see high 4-6, you can just about the SER is gonna flew strong and the cold will never go east of the Apps.
 
First time observing a ens because I’ve lost a ---- ton of motivation, but judging off these looks, first look, looks favorable for the upper/NW SE perhaps, the mid west/Ohio valley, and MA/NE, lower heights in the Atlantic could perhaps suppress the height field a bit, but the source here initially is still pacific polar, it lacks cold air initially
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This one right here would be the one if it was to produce, TPV extension into the eastern US trough probably means a pretty suppressed height field, with cold in place. which would favor southern solutions. Also can see the southern stream undercutting. The NE US trough/Baja low couplet is an old classic, but do they happen anymore ? Guess we will see. If it doesn’t we can add “Baja lows don’t work like they use to” to the “it doesn’t work like it used to” list
It worked in dec 2018 though
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The 0z Gefs,6z Gefs and 0z eps have some snow signal NC. Very quiet/low volume, but its there, for what its worth. We Got 13 days to see if it increases, verefies lol.

That's the good news: Here's the bad news I'm afraid and I hope I'm wrong, but I fully expect a repeat of Mid January for Mid February with the upcoming pattern. These pics should look familiar to many east of the apps

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Day 10 still sucks…until this super terrific pattern gets inside day 10 it’s winter over. We’ve seen this how many time over the years…”cant miss patterns”.

At this point, Feb 12th, we have just over 2 weeks left to score. Just how lucky do you feel.

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KyloG said:
Pattern change

View attachment 144820
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Looks like temps respond 3-4 days later. So I think at best we’re eyeing some time around the 18th-20th before a chance at a chance comes into view. After that, IFF models are to be believed, we get a quick a 8-10 day window to end the streak. I’d put the odds around 1/1000 that a poster on here between GSP and RAL ends the streak this year. IMG_6524.pngIMG_6523.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looks like temps respond 3-4 days later. So I think at best we’re eyeing some time around the 18th-20th before a chance at a chance comes into view. After that, IFF models are to be believed, we get a quick a 8-10 day window to end the streak. I’d put the odds around 1/1000 that a poster on here between GSP and RAL ends the streak this year. View attachment 144821View attachment 144822
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100% agree...but I am a little more optimistic on the snow front...maybe 1/100.

JB's favorite metric...SOI has tanked and should continue. Cold east coming

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NCSNOW said:
The pattern definitely shifts 2/13 into 2/14 on the models. Kylo you are using 5 day averages that get skewed by the 850 torch fest 2/10 2/11 2/12. But make no mistake after we get a cutter past us, front comes through and its Below Normal.
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Pattern change starts now...it takes time to erode that pain in the butt GOA ridge. We also need the EPO to go negative as the conus is flooded with warm air. It will take time for the cold to push. And like you said, 2/13-14 is when the PNA/EPA go +/- and then a few days after we should see temps respond...so roughly 2/18-20. It's not at a snap of a finger.

And yes, look at 5day mean to know if cold is entrenched.


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IDK. I'm unusually stoked for the thirty days starting 02/15. Generally for MBY, I throw in the towel on 02/20 unless something wild is progged just around the corner. That said, all long-range signs point to an unusually good pattern that I'm hopeful will deliver even here in Ga.

Sure, we'll have some mild days in between systems. That's the nature of living in the SE especially as we approach spring. But, there look to be several unusually cold shots deep into the CONUS on a cross-polar flow during the time of year when wave lengths shorten and we enter into a naturally stormy time of year.

The end of this winter will be here soon enough. Here's to hoping that 2024 goes down as an epic snow season for all by closing out this month with some monster hits and we get an early start to winter to end the year with the pending Nina come next December, (My favorite time of year for lasting snow).

Cheers.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
IDK. I'm unusually stoked for the thirty days starting 02/15. Generally for MBY, I throw in the towel on 02/20 unless something wild is progged just around the corner. That said, all long-range signs point to an unusually good pattern that I'm hopeful will deliver even here in Ga.

Sure, we'll have some mild days in between systems. That's the nature of living in the SE especially as we approach spring. But, there look to be several unusually cold shots deep into the CONUS on a cross-polar flow during the time of year when wave lengths shorten and we enter into a naturally stormy time of year.

The end of this winter will be here soon enough. Here's to hoping that 2024 goes down as an epic snow season for all by closing out this month with some monster hits and we get an early start to winter to end the year with the pending Nina come next December, (My favorite time of year for lasting snow).

Cheers.
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I'd say I've got about 2 weeks before I say give it up outside the mountains for N GA unless we see an actual storm tracking or something unusual occur since that's the only way to get good snow outside Feb. SSWE's won't save anyone at this point so things need to fall into place soon or it's not happening this year once more.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd say I've got about 2 weeks before I say give it up outside the mountains for N GA unless we see an actual storm tracking or something unusual occur since that's the only way to get good snow outside Feb. SSWE's won't save anyone at this point so things need to fall into place soon or it's not happening this year once more.
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That's fair. And as I said, 02/20 is usually my cutoff for winter weather interest. I just think that by the third week of this month, winter storms and rumors of winter storms will be prolific as all of the indices point to a loaded end to winter. If so, y'all are stuck with me here longer than usual lol.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That's fair. And as I said, 02/20 is usually my cutoff for winter weather interest. I just think that by the third week of this month, winter storms and rumors of winter storms will be prolific as all of the indices point to a loaded end to winter. If so, y'all are stuck with me here longer than usual lol.
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I think the upcoming cold pattern is going to produce for TN and NC. I'm gearing up to chase. GA is out of luck this year.
 
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