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Pattern February 2024

CaryWx said:
SnowGoose69 predicting more like ~2/17 for southeast. ~2/14 for bos/nyc
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Yep...that's what I've been saying and been getting trolled all day for it. Give us a solid 10-14 days to score.

PNA/EPO combo going +/- just before Valentines...will take a few days for cold to push.

So we are still on week 3 really.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-6788800.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
When you speak of a good 500mb pattern she comin for sure. Question is will the surface really respond? It likely will after a few days. But how long will it last? And the big question, is the snow comin?
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It'll take a few days to maybe 5 at most. With how quick this develops, I don't think this will take as long as what temp anomalies are reflecting on ensembles. When you open up the cross polar flow like that, she's coming down regardless of how much snow is on the ground in Canada. The pattern itself like Eric mentioned has legs through early March. I get the hesitation, we've been here & done that & got the rug pulled out time and time again. And i don't know if it'll snow, but we will have a couple chances. With each state you climb North, it obviously gets better and better.
 
KyloG said:
Yep...that's what I've been saying and been getting trolled all day for it. Give us a solid 10-14 days to score.

PNA/EPO combo going +/- just before Valentines...will take a few days for cold to push.

So we are still on week 3 really.

View attachment 144762
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I think the best timeframe for an active southern stream is going to be on the front end of this, say Feb 20-29, can see that on the models and that makes sense based on the Pac Jet > Subtropical Jet surge that is showing up then, sourced from the N Africa > SE Asia high pressure migration. Into March, we're not seeing new sources for momentum into the Pac Jet, so we'll have to see how that shakes out. But being on the front end with the southern stream would be a positive given Feb into March climo

Feb 23 looks Tiger Woods "better than most" I'd say

Feb 1 Euro Wk.png
 
griteater said:
I think the best timeframe for an active southern stream is going to be on the front end of this, say Feb 20-29, can see that on the models and that makes sense based on the Pac Jet > Subtropical Jet surge that is showing up then, sourced from the N Africa > SE Asia high pressure migration. Into March, we're not seeing new sources for momentum into the Pac Jet, so we'll have to see how that shakes out. But being on the front end with the southern stream would be a positive given Feb into March climo

Feb 23 looks Tiger Woods "better than most" I'd say

View attachment 144765
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Yep people can bump post this if I'm wrong that'll be fine but we should go system right before valentines day it's likely north, a credible threat right after valentines day as the cold is building in, probably too much northern stream 17-21st, stj pushes under the western ridge with probably 2 maybe 3 shots 2/23-3/3
 
The freaking out of going to be tasty when the models start seeing the eventual IO convection. That'll nudge the aleutian trough east closer to the WC and the longer range means will erroneously extend wavelengths east and warm the SE on the means only to have to shorten then closer to verification likely warming the SW canada northern rockies and upper Midwest and cooling the SE. I can hear the the source region is too warm, it's warm in north Dakota type posts now
 
SD said:
The freaking out of going to be tasty when the models start seeing the eventual IO convection. That'll nudge the aleutian trough east closer to the WC and the longer range means will erroneously extend wavelengths east and warm the SE on the means only to have to shorten then closer to verification likely warming the SW canada northern rockies and upper Midwest and cooling the SE. I can hear the the source region is too warm, it's warm in north Dakota type posts now
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yep.but can u blame us...i think thisnext but is ganna really favor east of miss river and maybe wayy east
 
We're about to find out how well we do with a very low amplitude 6&7 (or even within the COD).
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Tarheelwx said:
I’ll preface this statement with the fact that I really don’t pay attention to the ensembles except in the winter and it is when they are posted here or on the other board. But, once again the operational outperformed the ensembles. The GFS went south quite a while ago as so many folks pulled out the “disregard the operational at this range and use the ensembles” argument/strategy. Just saying that more often than not when I hear this statement, the operational(s) ends up being more accurate. Has anyone else seen to have experienced the same?

TW
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Ole goofy isn't as bad as it's let on sometimes.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
We're about to find out how well we do with a very low amplitude 6&7 (or even within the COD).
ps2png-worker-commands-78fb8c5f97-465t5-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-IzdHSB.png
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This is been pointed out by Webb and others a lot but these RMM charts have really not done a good job at predicting MJO progression this season. If you look at the blended progression chart available on NOAA’s website, 10 days ago was showing it in a high amp phase 6 right now but the tropical forcing was showing that it would be in mid to low amp phase 7 which that’s where we are. If you look at the tropical forcing now it would put is in low amp phase 8 heading towards 1. Just putting that out there that you can’t take these RMM charts as a definite, especially this year.
 
Chazwin said:
This is been pointed out by Webb and others a lot but these RMM charts have really not done a good job at predicting MJO progression this season. If you look at the blended progression chart available on NOAA’s website, 10 days ago was showing it in a high amp phase 6 right now but the tropical forcing was showing that it would be in mid to low amp phase 7 which that’s where we are. If you look at the tropical forcing now it would put is in low amp phase 8 heading towards 1. Just putting that out there that you can’t take these RMM charts as a definite, especially this year.
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The uncertainty in the modeling seems apparent. Past day 5, it's all over the place.

FWIW anywhere in or near the COD should be pretty good. No?
 
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