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Pattern February 2024

Arcc said:
This is probably why we are seeing the much colder run and alludes to SD’s point about the first and then second storm. The second one would probably be our first real shot. That is a powerful cutter around Valentine’s Day on the ensembles which will help set up the second with cold air.

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Which is exactly what happened to kick start the pattern last month.
 
0z CFS shows a bunch missed timing/bad luck scenarios ( shocking I know) out through March 4th. Biggest cold plunge I found was right here. So don't start planting those flowers just yet, We will trend away from the strong el nino excess qpf as we roll into and through spring. Someone let Shettley know. I'm expecting more nada burgers on spring severe over my way. The overhyping of Hurricane season is on deck as we roll into summer. Hopefully next year we can get a neutral signal and get away from el nino and La nina.
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For the record, I haven't sent the punter onto the field yet. But I'm telling him to warm up. See how it looks in 7-9 days from now. This is for frozen precip / NC Snow Modelology purposes.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
El Niño winters are usually better than La Niña winters here. El Niño winters definitely favor big dog storms for ATL if you look back at past El Niño yrs. 2009/2010 is one of the best examples. I saw measurable snowfall from JFM. A rare feat in and of itself here. However, that El Niño was moderate iirc, it definitely wasn’t as strong as this winter or the one in 2015/16 (which was a horrible winter in the snow department for us) I’m sure whether it’s west or east based plays a factor as well. La Niña winters can be good for ATL too if they lean more on the weaker side. 2010/2011 was the best one producing snow every month from DJF.

EDIT: The argument that El Niño winters are backloaded is valid. Even though we got an inch of snow in January 2010, our biggest snowfall happened a month later in mid February. My point is, some of us are gonna have to be a lot more patient than usual to see measurable snowfall. (Mid Feb-Mid March) It sucks because I would rather we got something on the board around here during peak climo in January, but it is what it is. We’ll just have to keep waiting and seeing. I always hold out until March before moving onto next winter’s prospects.
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I'm in the upstate of SC and I can remember after those two great back to back winters that maybe we were going to go back to the "great winters of the 60's and 70's," but that sure didn't happen now did it?
 
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NCSNOW said:
For the record, I haven't sent the punter onto the field yet. But I'm telling him to warm up. See how it looks in 7-9 days from now. This is for frozen precip / NC Snow Modelology purposes.
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I think we'll begin to see any potential fruit from this pattern by the Sunday model runs
 
KyloG said:
It’s tough to get below freezing in Februarys.

Nice frisbee golf weather at least.

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Spreads near the 15th thru 17th are gonna be huge and dampen it. The fact it shows 43 on the 17th is nice. As we get closer we will get outliers tossed. Lows will be below freezing with that look at H5. At a 12-16 day lead ensemble averages are never going to be overly extreme in either direction as you fall towards the average. Within 7 days that changes
 
BullCityWx said:
Last five days of the GEPS run, it looks like no members of that entire suite had a +AO
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I think my greatest fear for late feb is missing out around valentines day then getting an over bearing-AO/NAO/+PNA triplet then it's March 7th. The good thing is the stj punching under the western ridge may mitigate any dry suppression
 
EPO positive into valentines give or take. After that we could see temps really plummet, but that will take a few days.

So yeah, we can ignore ensembles for temps until we don’t.

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