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Pattern February 2024

Seems like we only get two options now. A pattern that favors out west, or a pattern that favors the mid Atlantic/NE. Is there any pattern that only favors the SE? And don’t say summer.
 
Chazwin said:
1988 was an El Niño. Again I understand what you’re saying about more cold in a La Niña, but the numbers are in this are unmistakable, El Niño produces a better a chance of snow for us in the Carolinas… I’m not sure about the rest of the southeast but I would be surprised if it’s not the same for cities like ATL and BHM.
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El Niño winters are usually better than La Niña winters here. El Niño winters definitely favor big dog storms for ATL if you look back at past El Niño yrs. 2009/2010 is one of the best examples. I saw measurable snowfall from JFM. A rare feat in and of itself here. However, that El Niño was moderate iirc, it definitely wasn’t as strong as this winter or the one in 2015/16 (which was a horrible winter in the snow department for us) I’m sure whether it’s west or east based plays a factor as well. La Niña winters can be good for ATL too if they lean more on the weaker side. 2010/2011 was the best one producing snow every month from DJF.

EDIT: The argument that El Niño winters are backloaded is valid. Even though we got an inch of snow in January 2010, our biggest snowfall happened a month later in mid February. My point is, some of us are gonna have to be a lot more patient than usual to see measurable snowfall. (Mid Feb-Mid March) It sucks because I would rather we got something on the board around here during peak climo in January, but it is what it is. We’ll just have to keep waiting and seeing. I always hold out until March before moving onto next winter’s prospects.
 
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Stevo24 said:
Seems like we only get two options now. A pattern that favors out west, or a pattern that favors the mid Atlantic/NE. Is there any pattern that only favors the SE? And don’t say summer.
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Well BOS is sitting on 9" and it avg's 50"/year...NYC avgs 25-30" and it's under 2" on the season. Everyone is sucking....well except for Tupelo and Huntsville.
 
Chazwin said:
1988 was an El Niño. Again I understand what you’re saying about more cold in a La Niña, but the numbers are in this are unmistakable, El Niño produces a better a chance of snow for us in the Carolinas… I’m not sure about the rest of the southeast but I would be surprised if it’s not the same for cities like ATL and BHM.
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I believe a neutral ENSO state is best for Atlanta, followed by a weak El Nino.
 
KyloG said:
Well BOS is sitting on 9" and it avg's 50"/year...NYC avgs 25-30" and it's under 2" on the season. Everyone is sucking....well except for Tupelo and Huntsville.
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Your point is well taken.
My son is in Kokomo Indiana.
About an hour N of Indianapolis.
He's been there since 2017.
He's not been disappointed with the cold.
Snow is not what he thought it would be,
His In Laws are a little younger than my wife and I,
Tell him the same thing.
It used to snow a lot more back in their younger days.
 
Our next chase is probably centered around valentines day. It may realistically be 2 the first before valentines day as the trough kicks out of the SW and the split flow starts very possible it's biased north and the second around the 16th 17th as the nrn stream gains some momentum and the STJ is forced south along the gulf coast
 
SD said:
Our next chase is probably centered around valentines day. It may realistically be 2 the first before valentines day as the trough kicks out of the SW and the split flow starts very possible it's biased north and the second around the 16th 17th as the nrn stream gains some momentum and the STJ is forced south along the gulf coast
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Yep, you can see the GEFS keying on a wave that enters the west around the 15th.
 
SD said:
Our next chase is probably centered around valentines day. It may realistically be 2 the first before valentines day as the trough kicks out of the SW and the split flow starts very possible it's biased north and the second around the 16th 17th as the nrn stream gains some momentum and the STJ is forced south along the gulf coast
Click to expand...
as you said that

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1706788800-1707890400-1707955200-10.gif
 
1707955200-96FiTzRSccU.png

Sheesh man
 
SD said:
Our next chase is probably centered around valentines day. It may realistically be 2 the first before valentines day as the trough kicks out of the SW and the split flow starts very possible it's biased north and the second around the 16th 17th as the nrn stream gains some momentum and the STJ is forced south along the gulf coast
Click to expand...
Totally agree, we likely miss the first one. Whatever happens after that could have a lot to work with.
 
This is probably why we are seeing the much colder run and alludes to SD’s point about the first and then second storm. The second one would probably be our first real shot. That is a powerful cutter around Valentine’s Day on the ensembles which will help set up the second with cold air.

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