rburrel2
Member
Can you explain what guidance you're referring to that is showing a "very warm" mid-month? Maybe Kylo's trolling fooled you, I dunno.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
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znel52
Member
I commented something in one of the threads seems to be a pattern the last 4 or 5 winters at least in my area. We usually get a really cold blast for a few days sometime in Nov-Dec timeframe. The rest of winter is above average with maybe 1-2 weeks of what I would call actually 'cold' weather smattered in. Willing to bet by mid to late March we will finally start running below average temps and won't warm up until about mid-May. It's the new Winter/Spring in the South
Correct. I do think a graph Panovich has shows neutral being the best. Since 1950 neutral winters average 5.9" followed by El Nino at 5.6". Finally La Nina 2.7". So I'm guessing the last 30 years have been more Ninas than anything since the 30 year average altogether is 3.7". That stat there is why you'll never see me root for a Nina, EVER! Sure the last few Ninos sucked and the only ones to produce recently are Ninas. But that's not saying much considering the snow drought we are in. This whole drought started during these 3 Nina years. If not for a lucky break in Jan 22 we'd be mostly snowless since 2018
coldfront22
Member
Burrel yes that looks good. I was referring more to around Valentines Day. Hopefully major changes after that timeframe. I’m a little skeptical because of the changes we see on the models within seven days. Hope this one sticks.
rburrel2
Member
All those runs are centered on February 15th, one day after valentines day, and it's when the weeklies/extended/ensembles have been showing the start of our great pattern for quite a while now.
Could it turn colder a few days earlier than that? Yes, and the guidance has wavered back and forth on that a few times... but there's been no delay or can-kicking of the large-scale pattern, imo.
Could we still get can-kicked a little? yes, but it's sorta crazy to me that people in here are complaining about it before it's even happened.
And again you are making it personal and attacking. How much fn longer is this shxt going to go on. You throwing up day 15+ ensembles like they are gospel. I stated clearly that I agree a pattern is change is coming but temps are going to take longer to respond that Feb 10-12th timeframe. And for that you are calling me a troll...
It’s actually reversed with 5.9” in Nino and 5.6” in neutral. More importantly to me though is the number of days that snowfall is recorded is higher in El Niño as well… so it’s not just that bigger storms happen in Ninos due to the strong STJ, but the daily chance of seeing snow is higher. You’re absolutely correct that there have been more La Niña winters since 1990 which also coincides with the increased tropical storms and hurricane numbers since then.
Nobody is complaining...you are being your little small self and attacking people again for discussing weather that might not agree with you. Take off the naive snow goggles and be objective.
No amount of disappointment kicking the can negatively fueled driven posting can stop this from coming. It's been written in the stars since back in the Fall. The extended has now oozed into the long range ensembles & all it's doing is inching closer by each passing day. Now I don't know if we all get what we want out of this pattern, but I do know we will have a chance.
coldfront22
Member
It's all good. I, like us all are hoping for a great end to winter pattern that gets this Board going wild. Appreciate what you both (Kyro and Burrel contribute to the forum.
I'm with Jimmy on this one,
Yes the SER is muted to a degree but there's really no mechanism to get the Cold into our area.
What good does L's moving in the right location if all you get is 40° rain.
I prefer La Nina's.
Much more cold just N or us ready to be tapped into most of the Winter.
88 was a ???
I am convinced that +AMO means less snow and more SER we should be trending toward neural/negative in the near future. Don't @ me ill pull some stats later
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El Niños are still statistically better snowfall wise. Don’t let this winter cloud your judgement of what the average El Niño looks like. We’ve been torched with a strong El Niño, but weak El Niños are golden because they extend the jet just enough to favor a +PNA. Ninas retract the jet to favor a -PNA.
As annoying as the NE torch has been, imagine how much worse it is to watch a mega SER dominate the SE while the west freezes for weeks on end.
I understand the statistics,
I get your point.
In my lifetime the best snows that stick around for more than a few days have been La Nina's.
At this point I'd take a dusting to just get on the board.
This is the longest snow drought of my life.
I think there's more to weather now than just patterns.
What we remember in the 80's & before probably doesn't apply today.
I am starting to wonder if those type of snows are no longer possible today!
?
Hope I didn't down the thread too much back there asking about a delay. Seems the forecast for pattern change has always been in the 12th-21st window give or take a couple days for nearly a month now. However, I was seeing/reading things about it not kicking off until the 17th or so. Everyday in that timeframe is exponential compared to where we are now.
All that said, to Bull's -NAO indicator I'm pretty sure we score more favorably when it is moving back towards neutral/positive from a low point. Looks to be happening around the 14th. All other indices are a solid systems go.
GoDuke
Member
My location forecast for February
Southern Statesville, NC
Temps: +2.5
Precip: 4.8
Snow: 0.0
Southern Statesville, NC
Temps: +2.5
Precip: 4.8
Snow: 0.0
1988 was an El Niño. Again I understand what you’re saying about more cold in a La Niña, but the numbers are in this are unmistakable, El Niño produces a better a chance of snow for us in the Carolinas… I’m not sure about the rest of the southeast but I would be surprised if it’s not the same for cities like ATL and BHM.
Not sure what I believe anymore, but the indices do look favorable.
PNA (currently slightly positive) Looks to go "more" positive in the LR. --- This is big
AO (currently very positive) Looks to go strongly negative in the LR --- maybe get some of that cross polar air feed.
NAO (currently very positive) - Looks to go slightly negative to neutral in the LR.
PNA (currently slightly positive) Looks to go "more" positive in the LR. --- This is big
AO (currently very positive) Looks to go strongly negative in the LR --- maybe get some of that cross polar air feed.
NAO (currently very positive) - Looks to go slightly negative to neutral in the LR.