Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Spurs up]

heard it was rain/sleet mix in Lexington sc

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's my final call map for this event. Based on this morning's CAM trends and lower than forecasted dew points, I lowered totals for the Triad & far western piedmont, however they increased in the coastal plain.

I expect a respectable band of >6" of snow to setup just east of Raleigh from roughly Wilson to Elizabeth City. Isolated amounts could certainly approach/exceed 8-10"


View attachment 35922

As an important addendum to this snow map, it's also worth mentioning where the greatest forecast uncertainty and largest spread in realistic outcomes exists with this storm. Imo, the area where the forecast is the most tenuous is southeast of the Triangle area generally along a line from Fayetteville to Greenville. It's in this area where the heaviest rates and total amount of precipitation overlap the most uncertainty in precipitation type. The proverbial ceiling and floor are much further apart in these areas vs other portions of central-eastern NC.

 

[Downeastnc]

I mean I have all sleet and its 45 degrees. Craziness.

Yeah be all snow by 3-4 pm and it will crash the temps and pile up fast.....

 

[cyclogent]

And..cooling has commenced, finally. 39/39 as of 12:45. Down from the 41/41 at 11:21.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

41. Blinding rain

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Flurries in the camel city 37° on my van

 

[Rain Cold]

Man that's one big precip void over NC and upstream. Hope it starts fo fill in soon.

 

[Lowtown]

Happy to report some light flurries here in Winston-Salem. Very fine flakes. Ready to get this thing cranking!

 

[Jessy89]

Sleet in Easley I just don’t think we even see a inch dew point is 39


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[Downeastnc]

As an important addendum to this snow map, it's also worth mentioning where the greatest forecast uncertainty and largest spread in realistic outcomes exists with this storm. Imo, the area where the forecast is the most tenuous is southeast of the Triangle area generally along a line from Fayetteville to Greenville. It's in this area where the heaviest rates and total amount of precipitation overlap the most uncertainty in precipitation type. The proverbial ceiling and floor are much further apart in these areas vs other portions of central-eastern NC.


View attachment 35947

Yeah the proverbial gotta smell the rain zone....could be 4-6" could be 8-12", I am just hoping for several hrs of heavy snow with the winds pushing the low 30's and hopefully the surface temp down to 30-32.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Down to 38.5 here. Wind still howling. Heavy rain.

Same here in Chastain Park area. ITP really seems to be in a cold pocket. No way we hit mid 40s barring some unforeseen WAA.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Precip blossoming back towards Toccoa GA..Northern upstate might flip in the next hour

 

[ForsythSnow]

CC line seems to be fluctuating heavily now. I can actually see it on the FFC radar now.

 

[packfan98]

Much better run on the 17z HRRR for the NW piedmont.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Down to 38.5 here. Wind still howling. Heavy rain.

Same here!

 

[NCSNOW]

Been snowing hard up in Boone past hour. Those echoes heading east

 

[iGrey_X]

Sleet and snow mix in greenville

 

[SimeonNC]

Very light precip in Huntersville. Can't tell if it's sleet or rain

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[Webberweather53]

Good god, this HRRR run has 35-40 dBz snow over much of the piedmont & coastal plain in 6-7 hours, I know a lot of that is melting related but still, it's probably going to be ripping fatties in a lot of backyards shortly.

Also, the rain-snow line is creeping closer to Columbia, SC on each successive HRRR run. ?

 

[SimeonNC]

Update: it's sleet and precip is picking up

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