Very significant.... amazing, IIRC this is now the 3rd event the Euro started adjusting 11th hour. It's still great medium, long range but obviously it's not what it used to be.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Gsp haven't pulled the trigger yet???? It could be in the works but this is misleading...
I know Webber probably has been pulling his hair out the past couple of days trying to convince people the NAM's weren't out to lunch and the Euro was. Will see how this verifies tomorrow but to see all the globals move toward the NAM's....
I wouldn’t rule out a small chance heavy snow continues out of south/western NC and gets ridiculously Far East into the piedmont before all eyes turn to the transfer. This would catch many low elevations off guard (Hickory, Mooresville, Salisbury).
MichaelJ
Member
Really wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the globals now, stick with the mesocale modles like the 3K Nam. While it does tend to over do the precip amounts, it is excellent on the thermal profiles. Be cautious with the SREF plumes, HRRR and the RAP until tomorrow morning when they should zone in pretty well. TOTALLY ignore the WRF/ARW
They are out for south/west NC and all of eastern TN. GSP likely wanted to wait to review all 12z suits.
Bannerdude
Member
NWS Raleigh upped the totals in their latest map and added a hatched area
snowlover91
Member
Cool view of the 3km on Tidbits, you can actually see some NNW to SSE oriented snowbands as the coastal intensifies. These would likely be dropping some solid 1-2" per hour rates and whoever gets under these could really rack the totals up fast. Notice one near RDU and another near Rocky Mt and Wilson
SnowNiner
Member
Hopefully they're still catching up to its temps as well. Still got a ways to go on that I think.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GSP hasn’t issued anything yet. Those two counties in the far west NC is under MRX in TN.
tucker
Member
This is a tough forecast for Chattanooga. I hope we can at least get something tomorrow.
Yeah, lots of low level frontogenesis coupled with WAA/moist SW winds aloft is a recipe for intense snow rates if you stay away from sleet, NAM shows these bands as far west as CLT, note the omega around -1 to -2, that’s lift you see with general thunderstorms in the summer time, that’s exciting stuff
packfan98
Moderator
LickWx
Member
This is the first time in here I’ve seen the short range get such praise . If it was the euro showing big snow and nam nada wonder if same people would be arguing for the short range . 2017 was like that for here .
Either way the arguments for the short range model aren’t wrong I just am a bit skeptical they would have been made if roles were reversed . My time in here has been short so keep on I could be wrong !
I will add I think it’s discomforting to just say“ nam has the better handle because it short range euro doesn’t know what it’s talking about “ . No proper forecaster would do that!
Either way the arguments for the short range model aren’t wrong I just am a bit skeptical they would have been made if roles were reversed . My time in here has been short so keep on I could be wrong !
I will add I think it’s discomforting to just say“ nam has the better handle because it short range euro doesn’t know what it’s talking about “ . No proper forecaster would do that!
Six Mile Wx
Member
Nice stream of precip!
WxBlue
Meteorologist
What a fun forecast to make... ? but I really think frontogenesis-aided band is gonna hammer someone in NE NC somewhere. I have widespread 2-4" mainly because of the back-end band moving out of the area, but most of NC/SC border area should start with rain and sleet. Wake County gradient, as always, was the toughest to forecast. But someone above my pink dotted zone is gonna do really well along the US 64/ US 264 corridor. The whole system is moving fast enough that I can't see anything more than 8 inches in eastern NC... but we'll see!
Six Mile Wx
Member
Anyone tracking the high that’s feeding the cold? Can we get a stronger/earlier push?
Fountainguy97
Member
Its time to start nowcasting this. You can see our storm footprint taking shape over TX. It looks nice and healthy and there is plenty of northern moisture which supports our qpf to those northern areas. This will build and push northward into TN this evening!
One key to watch is the formation of a weak low along the gulf coast. That is what adds extra moisture into many of our 12km nam runs and also it is what causes our warm nose to be more pronounced. You can see below that classic "buckle" in the storm system. That is a clear indication of a forming low pressure. There is a broad area of LP there and you can see the enhanced moisture support on the backside which is beefing up the precip shield in a significant way.
Other models that are less aggressive have less of this buckle and more of a straight southwest to northeast precip configuration.
It is a catch 22 because the more amped you get the more of a concern the warm nose becomes. Just something to track for ground truth this evening.
One key to watch is the formation of a weak low along the gulf coast. That is what adds extra moisture into many of our 12km nam runs and also it is what causes our warm nose to be more pronounced. You can see below that classic "buckle" in the storm system. That is a clear indication of a forming low pressure. There is a broad area of LP there and you can see the enhanced moisture support on the backside which is beefing up the precip shield in a significant way.
Other models that are less aggressive have less of this buckle and more of a straight southwest to northeast precip configuration.
It is a catch 22 because the more amped you get the more of a concern the warm nose becomes. Just something to track for ground truth this evening.
farleydawg792
Member
Only if this had more cold air, a lot more places would be in play. Good luck to those who win!!!