Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

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[SD]

Yeah. Precip maps a little further north with rain/IP. I would like to step back from that more amp’d solution. Most of us can’t afford for that to keep getting stronger up until zero hour

yeah for those of us along the change over line or hoping for a change over its not what you want to see. The obvious move with the NAM here is more amplification than warm nosing northward, obviously the 2 or connected in some way but we got more amp than north of the warm nose (if that makes sense). That'll be something to watch with the rest of the 12z models, if everything else stays flatter, you have to think the NAM have be slightly too far north

 

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Leaving the snowmaps, other to you guys. Just posting those real fast since I had time.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 35558

Big jump north in NC with the sleet..

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah. Precip maps a little further north with rain/IP. I would like to step back from that more amp’d solution. Most of us can’t afford for that to keep getting stronger up until zero hour

This is the time we stop rooting for the NAM, and blowing it off as an outlier. SREF it is then. Go SREF!

We sure could use some CAD couldn't we?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks to me like some mix Raleigh southward, then changing to mostly snow. That snow on top of sleet can be fun.

 

[FallsLake]

At hour 30 the sleet line gets right up to RDU. Afterwards it slowly retreats south and eastward. I would personally like this to hold **got to smell the rain/sleet to get the biggest totals.

 

[Snownut]

The totals on thec12z NAM Went up for the upstate. 3-5" is it just me or does that seem high?

 

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Well, there is this:

 

[Ollie Williams]

Still looking good for RDU and the Triad. Although sleet is dangerously close to me.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The totals on thec12z NAM Went up for the upstate. 3-5" is it just me or does that seem high?

If you’re looking at TT maps they are garbage. That wasn’t a good run for the upstate

 

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The tropical tidbits maps, from my understanding, are taking the mixed sleet/snow/slop and counting it as 10:1 snowfall. They are very overdone in regards to snowfall maps here in the South.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If you’re looking at TT maps they are garbage. That wasn’t a good run for the upstate

Well now I’m looking at Ollie’s post and it looks good...idk..I didn’t love that juiced up solution for upstate SC

 

[FallsLake]

We seem to be living right on the edge a lot up here, and it usually turns out well for us.

Yeah man, we've done well the last few years (...being on the line). This run would give our area (north Wake) some of the largest totals for the area.

 

[Snownut]

The tropical tidbits maps, from my understanding, are taking the mixed sleet/snow/slop and counting it as 10:1 snowfall. They are very overdone in regards to snowfall maps here in the South.

Which are the better ones to use

 

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Which are the better ones to use

The maps posted above, from weathermodels or weatherbell. Pivotal are okay too.

Let me put it this way. that run of the nam put 9 inches in my back yard via TT maps. I wouldn't even see a real snowflake.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I hear a lot of talk about the Wake county gradient...but Greenville SC will give you a run for your money