iGrey_X
Member
Just the algorithms. Best thing to do is pay attention to the soundings and know about certain basis’s that each one has especially from a temperature standpoint.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
What time are you speaking of? I see that at 9:00am, which is about the start of the precip in the upstate, that the layer between 750-850 is too warm and the air is saturated already.
I just want to note that the HRRR did not handle my area well, at all, with our 5 to 6" event a couple of weeks ago. It was spitting out putrid amounts of snow 30 minutes before my yard was covered. Different set up but just throwing it out there.
BackThePack
Member
IMO, there is going to be a battle for the rain to snow transition. Areas north of 64 see snow first, but areas south of 64 see more QPF. That 64 corridor still feels like it will have the best balance of the two. That puts Raleigh in an interesting spot. At what point does the precip turn frozen to fluff and how much QPF will be left (how fast is it moving, will Wake cash in on any deform)
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Per RAH, the NAM is initializing too cold, thus they are pretty much discounting its solution. I can certainly see how this is a problem. Hopefully we get even better agreement in the modeling today.
NWS GSP continues to be unimpressed for my area. Just a 30% rn/sn mix for Thu night.
Both SREF’s
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
That looks like a significant increase for the Triad at least
Fountainguy97
Member
I don’t get this argument form them. The HRRR and NAM are pretty much identical on temps at hr 18.
Sounds like an excuse to not up totals right now.
ajr
Member
ajr
Member
6z EPS
00z
00z
Jon
Member
Looks like you're also at elevation so that helps over-perform a bit, but yeah, it missed bad.
I'm working in N. Charleston currently and must drive home to Wilson, NC straight up 95 beginning around 10am Friday. Is there anyone that can offer any insight on expected road conditions on the interstate headed north on Friday? It's a 4 hour drive from where I am in Charleston, and I HAVE to be home by 3 pm Friday. Any insight is greatly appreciated!!!
TN sure, only NW tip of AL, if that, most likely.North Al/TN still looks decent.
06z EPS is even better for thr Triad
Control
Control
Wakefield’s discussion this morning. Pertinent info only.
Given the trends of bringing the pcpn shield farther north with each model run, snow totals with this forecast package will range from
arnd 1 inch in the RIC-PTB metro areas east towards MVF, a 1-2 inch swath farther se towards the middle Peninsula to FKN-AVC with 2-3
inches in areas away from the water across Hampton Roads/nern NC. These values are still in a winter wx advsry headline if they hold, but watches may be needed if amounts tick up in later model runs.
Given the trends of bringing the pcpn shield farther north with each model run, snow totals with this forecast package will range from
arnd 1 inch in the RIC-PTB metro areas east towards MVF, a 1-2 inch swath farther se towards the middle Peninsula to FKN-AVC with 2-3
inches in areas away from the water across Hampton Roads/nern NC. These values are still in a winter wx advsry headline if they hold, but watches may be needed if amounts tick up in later model runs.