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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

SD said:
This is how you get close enough to smell the rain but have mashed potatoes fallingView attachment 35376
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I like that, Mashed Potatoes falling.

Highway 64 corridor from Murphy to Manteo. Jackpot zone would be somewhere from Mocksville out to the obx, thats a great line and any where 30 miles north to 40 miles south, espeacilly piedmont into coastal plain region should lollipop the highest.
 
WxBlue said:
I might be too bullish with this forecast, but someone had to give it a shot over these conservative local mets. Posting this onto my Facebook page for family and friends was terrifying.


View attachment 35381
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Not bad. I would maybe back the 2-4 further west a bit Charlotte to Greensboro and I still would watch the Hwy 74 corridor east of Charlotte for higher amounts if the deform band sets up right. Overall I could see this map being close
 
Looks to be the biggest problem on Euro is the arrival of colder air, but could be faster with the system or something like that.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well the professor up at Appalachian State sounds bitter. Ray told everyone he won’t be going higher than a dusting to 1” because of “how this winter has gone”. Goes on to say to keep your expectations low so you won’t be disappointed. If you don’t believe me go read his forecast for Boone. Seems a bit foolish without a science reasoning to let the public think for themselves. I guess he has no care for student safety.
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I read his page frequently. He’s thrown that out a lot this winter...and January was not kind to Avery county. Moisture might certainly be a problem up that way
 
Decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now. One of my met friends pointed out about the speed of jet streak making the storm move through rather fast.
 
Shaggy said:
Is it worth it to go back to the previous runs of the euro from last week that all showed the bigger totals to see how they match up now with the Nam? The euro has been locked on a shutout since then but it did show outputs similar to what the nam has in the long range.
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This is the BIG forecast snowfall the Euro showed last week:

EURO_TotalSnowKuchera_NC_2020-02-13_00Z_FHr240_WB.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm going to need to it fold alot more than that. That's still pretty pathetic if I'm comparing it to the nam, and even the gfs at this point.
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Why? It has the worst verification scores at off all the big models. I mean it could be on to something, but at this point I am starting to lose respect for the Euro. If it ends up being 100% correct, verbatim, I will be horrifically shocked at this point.
 
It seems like with the call maps popping up everywhere, everyone is discounting the nam with the very low totals for the clt area/southern piedmont.
 
ryan1234 said:
Why? It has the worst verification scores at off all the big models. I mean it could be on to something, but at this point I am starting to lose respect for the Euro. If it ends up being 100% correct, verbatim, I will be horrifically shocked at this point.
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Who told you that the Euro has the worst verification scores of all the global models? Incorrect.
 
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