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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Well, aren't you a ray of sunshine! ?
Man forget wintry wx I hope we trend away from a rain cold CAD and get a 100-500 cape low topped QLCS
I mean we might as well. Literally, the whole state of Texas is going to get snow and we can't even a sleet pellet or ice down here. I need like 403,283 white flags at this point.
Looks like the NAM is strengthening the TPV on its exit as well, if that continues we’re gonna get a legit colder trend with CAD here the next few days with the next system
May be the biggest warm nose with a ZR sounding I’ve ever seen 
BHS1975
Member
Yeah that would be a cold rain just from all the latent heat transported down.
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Come join the smast special thread
RGEM.... sorta suspect 
Icon didn’t back off btw
Icon didn’t back off btw
NCSNOW
Member
Chit
LickWx
Member
Man that’s nuts ! Especially considering the warm bias of the icon . In reality that is a super strong signal for ice even down to CAE.
Tongue in cheek
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
No icon has had a cold bias lately. It's been a horrible model for the last weeks or so.
Maybe a classic Miller B attempt
I’m sorry ?? but if this is how we have to get a piece of KING KONG then SO BE IT 
Weenie
There’s your difference 
iGRXY
Member
Understandable for the GFS not to have a strong CAD signal. It’s ASS at picking up low level cold
Gsoweenie
Member
Weather channel calling for cold rain in Greensboro on Thursday. Accuweather, saying 4-8 inches of snow.
Wudge becoming a legit wedge 
Okay the fact that globals are picking up on ur like this is concerning
Is this the first suggestion of temps going down during the event? All previous runs I've seen implied going up.
So it’s ICON/CMC/RGEM/GFS vs UKMET/v16 so far, UKMET didn’t show much at all
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z ICON doubling down
6z GFS coming in colder too
RAH:
The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature another widespread, soaking rain that will end from west to
east Thu night-early Fri. And with the Arctic high of favorable
strength and position initially Wed night-Thu, it appears
increasingly likely that another freezing rain event will occur Thu
morning over the climatologically-favored nw Piedmont. After a
possible 4-8 hour period of (Advisory-type) freezing rain, it would
become self-limiting and change over to a cold rain with the nwwd
retreat of the wet bulb freezing line through the mid-late morning
to midday hours, as the Arctic high rapidly weakens and retreats nwd
into QC. Strong stability within the cold air damming regime will be
resistant to erosion, however, so high temperatures on Thu will
likely be much cooler than national blended guidance, likely ranging
from mid-upr 30s over the nrn Piedmont to 40s over the remainder of
the Piedmont, to 50s over the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain.
The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature another widespread, soaking rain that will end from west to
east Thu night-early Fri. And with the Arctic high of favorable
strength and position initially Wed night-Thu, it appears
increasingly likely that another freezing rain event will occur Thu
morning over the climatologically-favored nw Piedmont. After a
possible 4-8 hour period of (Advisory-type) freezing rain, it would
become self-limiting and change over to a cold rain with the nwwd
retreat of the wet bulb freezing line through the mid-late morning
to midday hours, as the Arctic high rapidly weakens and retreats nwd
into QC. Strong stability within the cold air damming regime will be
resistant to erosion, however, so high temperatures on Thu will
likely be much cooler than national blended guidance, likely ranging
from mid-upr 30s over the nrn Piedmont to 40s over the remainder of
the Piedmont, to 50s over the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain.
RGEM doubling down as well
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NWS Blend of models FRAM has performed fairly well this winter and it's way more reasonable. No reason to post ZR QPF maps that never verify
packfan98
Moderator
It looked like all of the models ticked colder on the latest runs unfortunately. I also think that this system has the potential to be worse in the more traditional blue ridge escarpment and foothills area than the last storm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This trend on NWP backing up the vortex into SE Canada is weakening our CAD for this setup
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m not a huge fan of it because it gives equal weight to models such as the GFS and euro that typically do very poorly with CAD situations.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It also gives weight to models like the RGEM that are cold biased. It's done very well in these storms overall this winter, those crazy QPF ZR maps aren't going to verify.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
RGEM did quite well with the last CAD event a few days ago, maybe even slightly underdone in some areas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
RGEM did well the day of the event but it's cold biased at this range 2-3 days out, almost always is & this case doesn't look any different.