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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Webberweather53 said:
About how much accrual did you see (presumably in northern Randolph Co?)
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Im at work right by airport, packfan may be home, sounds like teaching remotely. Up here @PTI its 32/31 drizzle still. Looks like they are at.2 -.25 Territory at least. Im sure ours will be gone or greatly diminished by 5pm back at house. There wasnt a difference between locations at 5 am, but obviously the house will have warmed up hours before up here.
 
NCSNOW said:
Im at work right by airport, packfan may be home, sounds like teaching remotely. Up here @PTI its 32/31 drizzle still. Looks like they are at.2 -.25 Territory at least. Im sure ours will be gone or greatly diminished by 5pm back at house. There wasnt a difference between locations at 5 am, but obviously the house will have warmed up hours before up here.
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I’d say between .15 and .2”
 
From reading this thread, it appears that good accrual of ice above about 10-15 feet when the temp was right at 32.0 was common. Do I have this right?
 
For learning purposes to help us with forecasting future events, how has the temperature bias been for this event for the ICON, RGEM, GFS, UKMET, Euro and others?
 
Well have good glazing outside here in Raleigh near the PNC Arena and definitely have the white icy look to the trees .. definitly more of an even further south than the HRRR was depicting all day.. don’t even try to convince me to try and use that model again for CAD ..
 
GaWx said:
From reading this thread, it appears that good accrual of ice above about 10-15 feet when the temp was right at 32.0 was common. Do I have this right?
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RGEM was almost perfect in the location of where freezing rain would occur at least about a day out
 
GaWx said:
For learning purposes to help us with forecasting future events, how has the temperature bias been for this event for the ICON, RGEM, GFS, UKMET, Euro and others?
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Griteater made a chart of all the model sfc temps yesterday.

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU
Euro: 33 / 30 / 33
GFS: 32 / 29 / 31
GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31
CMC: 30 / 28 / 30
ICON: 31 / 29 / 31
HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32
3km NAM: 32 / 30 32
2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32
 
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Ollie Williams said:
Griteater made a chart of all the model sfc temps yesterday.

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU
Euro: 33 / 30 / 33
GFS: 32 / 29 / 31
GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31
CMC: 30 / 28 / 30
ICON: 31 / 29 / 31
HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32
3km NAM: 32 / 30 32
2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

I want to say that the HRRR did the best.
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The HRRR did absolutely dog poop .. if we listened to the HRRR there wouldn’t be any ice Durham south and east
 
Ollie Williams said:
Griteater made a chart of all the model sfc temps yesterday.

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU
Euro: 33 / 30 / 33
GFS: 32 / 29 / 31
GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31
CMC: 30 / 28 / 30
ICON: 31 / 29 / 31
HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32
3km NAM: 32 / 30 32
2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

I want to say that the HRRR did the best.
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The HRRR was pretty terrible w/ where the southern edge of ZR would be, having basically nothing SE of the Triad, and the last several runs this morning were warmer than yesterday's forecasts from the model.
 
Only a light glazing on tree tops at my house in Cary but there was quite a bit more ice on bushes and trees around downtown Apex when I drove through. Seems like minute details like my proximity to Jordan Lake and being 150ft lower in elevation than Apex was enough to make noticeable differences in such a marginal setup despite downtown being only a few miles to my south.
 
I find it slightly concerning its 33 degrees and the trees still have ice on them while the ground layer stuff melted... we still don’t need the build up in trees
 
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