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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

Webberweather53 said:
In searching thru the archived sounding data paired w/ my winter storm maps, I have found at least one storm w/ a comparable warm nose to what we're seeing in the models. This ice storm in late December 1993:

Widespread 0.25"-0.5" ice totals were observed from Charlotte-RDU & pts NW towards the Triad.

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This is the observed sounding from GSO at 12z December 28 1993. There's obviously still some low-mid level dry air but the warm nose was ~+10°C just below 900mb. Once the column saturated, the warm nose came out to be ~+6-7°C w/ surface temps falling throughout the event from near-freezing at the onset to 27-28F at the end.

View attachment 75803


Here's the 0z Dec 29 1993 KGSO sounding

View attachment 75804
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Thank goodness it won’t be as bad as that one around here at least, for areas north, oof
 
One thing I noticed this morning was the extensive layer of high clouds this morning. That is going to limit warming. I don't recall any forecast saying we'd be mostly cloudy this morning on.
 
ryan1234 said:
One thing I noticed this morning was the extensive layer of high clouds this morning. That is going to limit warming. I don't recall any forecast saying we'd be mostly cloudy this morning on.
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Yeah, I am almost completely cloudy. I said last night I would watch out to see if we actually make it above 40 today.
 
12z National Blend of Models FRAM. Again, multiply these totals by 40% verbatim because you have to convert ice accrual from a horizontal, flat sfc to radial ice accumulation on trees and power lines. Oth, given that these amounts are definitely very damped due to dispersion between various models, you also should mentally take out much less than that. You certainly should look at individual models FRAM to get a sense for what the local max values will be however. They're generally in the ballpark of 0.4-0.5" or so. Also, they'll likely be more than that in isolated areas because the model won't be able to resolve it.

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superjames1992 said:
Winter Storm this morning here, I see. Definitely concerned about losing my power now. Chatham and Wake are under an Advisory, so I’m on the southern periphery of the Warning, though.
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Yeah, very concerned up here.


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I’m curious to see if any of that could make it to the Tuscaloosa area before turning to rain especially since there are winter advisory out close to the county
 
I am confused. The NAM total snow accumuations looks like this, only when you watch the radar it does not show any real frozen precip moving through my area (Dalton, Ga.). I'm really just looking for someone to explain to me why it looks like North Georgia has accumulating snow/sleet when the radar shows only rain.
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