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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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malak05 said:
It is complete fantasy-land that system but just the thought of that is horrific to be honest what do you think 2.5 inches across the whole of GA/SC/NC would do the impact and recover would ridiculous
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A true shutdown and in need of assistance from all over the country
 
ForsythSnow said:
One garbage TT map coming right up! Entertainment only because of ice.
gfs_asnow_seus_50.png
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I'm sure TT can't tell the difference between cold rain and ZR. At least there is some fantasy stuff to look at to keep us entertained lol.
 
And here we go again. Only 200+ hours out. The cycle continues.
 
WxWatch said:
Looking back at my prediction/model map that I posted last Thursday, December 5th. Some criticized it (lol) while a lot of members liked my predictions. I knew there was going to be snow and ice. I wasn't sure if it was going to occur with one or two different systems and the timing. It turns out that the snow is going to occur with one system, and ice with a different system. I was off with the snow; I thought it was going to be colder and that overrunning was going to be all snow, and that's why I put the snow sector further south on my prediction map/model. Yes, I know my predictions weren't exact, but I say it was fairly good in advance.

Looking at the GFS snowfall output placement (for the overrunning) and the 12km NAM predicted freezing rain area's for the 2nd system, it is remarkable that my prediction held true in a way. Again, my prediction technique has an average of 60% - 80% accuracy rating. I'm still thinking of ways to improve my model, (yes I'm considering it a model) and if you have any thoughts of what I can add to my model, it would be much appreciated. Maybe next time, I won't have criticism lol.View attachment 27650

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Nah dawg

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
Save this horrible map it's so fake it's funny!
gfs_asnow_seus_55.png
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I mean kudos to that. I've never seen a fantasy map with 32 inches IMBY. I'm not even mad....I'm impressed! Bumkis, but kudos!
Tarheel1 said:
The ??are running buck wild , up in that December thread!
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Don't front. We all know it's clown, but deep deep down, we all hope it's right. We all do. You're not better than me! lol.
 
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This huge fantasy ice storm brings back memories of what models, forecast, etc were showing for the Columbia area 24-48 hours out with the Feb 12th, 2014 storm. I'll never forget what totals the NAM was showing. To this day, I've never seen a TWC forecast description say this in their app/forecast. "Ice accumulation will cause damage" was very worrisome but certainly had some hype to it. Luckily for the Columbia area, we ended up with some deeper cold air in place and had a lot of sleet. Places to the South had 1-1.5 of ice accrual.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Jimmy! Finally a good jackpot for us! ZR accums! ????View attachment 27691
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So, Just doing basic overly simplified math here...

But @ 2" of rain frozen to a 60' x 35' roof line, that's 2,506 gallons of water, which comes to a total of 20,900 lbs of extra weight on your roof. @ 3" that's 3,759 gallons of rainwater which comes to 31,370 lbs of extra weight on your roof.

That would be a natural disaster.
 
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