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Pattern Failboat February

The difference between us torching and being bitterly cold here is razor thin. Honestly we’re probably going to get at least some of both in the coming weeks.

Volatility has been the name of the game this winter and that is probably going to get turned up to 11 in February
That lines up with 13-14. I remember going from torch to single digits several times that season.
 
A lot of our bigger storms come at the beginning or end of a pattern change so I’m not going to hate on a warm spell and I hope we can score on the back end of it. Certainly, wall to wall cold didn’t work too well for most of us.
 
A lot of our bigger storms come at the beginning or end of a pattern change so I’m not going to hate on a warm spell and I hope we can score on the back end of it. Certainly, wall to wall cold didn’t work too well for most of us.
Might put us at bigger advantages with going warm to cold regarding overrunning and the baroclinic zone being a bit further north then Jan’s setup for ex
 
I think the mid south is going to be the battle zone as we move on into February. I don’t think the mid south will torch, more like a thaw with maybe slightly above normal temps to start February before cold enters the picture for at least some of the mid and upper south at least.
Yeah I agree. I don't think the cold is going to blast in like we saw in January. I agree with the volatility take that ultimately skews colder. An active pattern will lead to opportunities.
 
I think the mid south is going to be the battle zone as we move on into February. I don’t think the mid south will torch, more like a thaw with maybe slightly above normal temps to start February before cold enters the picture for at least some of the mid and upper south at least.
Do think most of the cold will stay west of the Mississippi this go around … one stout se ridge showing up . Been long time awe. One modeled that stout
 
Great example of the type of pattern we’re working with. AI has a pretty big torch, then a few days later, a nice snow event
Then

This was basically what Feb 1989 was, in one week we went from a high of 76 with severe/tornadic storms to a few days later we had 12" of snow....the month was -2 here for the month but we had 6 days hit 75 or better and hit 80 twice, and never had a sub freezing high day.
 
Big changes on the 06z GFS.... extended looks nothing like previous runs. The winter pattern we are in seems like it just wants to favor cold.
I'm not sure I'm in love with where it goes. Looks mostly warm. Plus, I'm not crazy about what it does with the big block over the Aleutians.

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png
 
LC

1966-67 continues to provide the best ONI analog, and that winter had two critical, synoptic scale heavy snow events that affected, respectively, the Great Plains/Midwest and the Northeast. There were impressive cold intrusions, too, but gaps in between the Arctic intrusions. The ECMWF panels have generally performed the best so far this winter, and that series is showing a very strong Alaskan block in the 11-15 day period. So after a recovery, the cold and the frozen precipitation should make a comeback before we see a shift to a negative/neutral ENSO signature (now a pronounced moderate La Nina) with a very warm and dry Southwest+South Central USA. In short, we are not done with winter by any means, and I would not be surprised to see the area from North Texas to the Great Lakes and Northeast have a shot at a significant snow/ice event.
 
LC

1966-67 continues to provide the best ONI analog, and that winter had two critical, synoptic scale heavy snow events that affected, respectively, the Great Plains/Midwest and the Northeast. There were impressive cold intrusions, too, but gaps in between the Arctic intrusions. The ECMWF panels have generally performed the best so far this winter, and that series is showing a very strong Alaskan block in the 11-15 day period. So after a recovery, the cold and the frozen precipitation should make a comeback before we see a shift to a negative/neutral ENSO signature (now a pronounced moderate La Nina) with a very warm and dry Southwest+South Central USA. In short, we are not done with winter by any means, and I would not be surprised to see the area from North Texas to the Great Lakes and Northeast have a shot at a significant snow/ice event.
Yeah this pattern is screaming a big ice storm setting up somewhere. . Where ever the artic boundary just gets south of any location then stalls … interesting time ahead
 
Yeah this pattern is screaming a big ice storm setting up somewhere. . Where ever the artic boundary just gets south of any location then stalls … interesting time ahead
Guessing from the GEFS members, the mid-south will be in the cross-hairs. I'm thinking N., LA, MS, AR, TN...
 
I dont see severe being as big an issue this spring. Should be tampered down a lot. I see dry being the main topic of conversation this spring , summer.
 
I think a 7-10 day warmup to open this month and then let's see after that is probably a good baseline.

I'm all for it for the time being.

Really wouldn't surprise me if we wind up going from February's just being straight warm to a bit of volatility there for this year (edit: so, yes, I'm pretty much agreeing with the other posts in here). Straight warm would be strange since this January was the coldest in years (honestly, arguably, 11 years).
 
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