Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS later in week 2 is walking the tight rope between a big torch and big cold w/ overrunning potential. One small nudge in either direction has dramatic sensible weather changes
That lines up with 13-14. I remember going from torch to single digits several times that season.The difference between us torching and being bitterly cold here is razor thin. Honestly we’re probably going to get at least some of both in the coming weeks.
Volatility has been the name of the game this winter and that is probably going to get turned up to 11 in February
Yea doubt the torch is lasting. The EPS brings back the Aleutian troughing in late week 1/early week 2 of Feb View attachment 167138
Priming our source region … SeattleView attachment 167137
Euro brings the heat well into February- not great for us snow lovers
Might put us at bigger advantages with going warm to cold regarding overrunning and the baroclinic zone being a bit further north then Jan’s setup for exA lot of our bigger storms come at the beginning or end of a pattern change so I’m not going to hate on a warm spell and I hope we can score on the back end of it. Certainly, wall to wall cold didn’t work too well for most of us.
Yeah I agree. I don't think the cold is going to blast in like we saw in January. I agree with the volatility take that ultimately skews colder. An active pattern will lead to opportunities.I think the mid south is going to be the battle zone as we move on into February. I don’t think the mid south will torch, more like a thaw with maybe slightly above normal temps to start February before cold enters the picture for at least some of the mid and upper south at least.
Do think most of the cold will stay west of the Mississippi this go around … one stout se ridge showing up . Been long time awe. One modeled that stoutI think the mid south is going to be the battle zone as we move on into February. I don’t think the mid south will torch, more like a thaw with maybe slightly above normal temps to start February before cold enters the picture for at least some of the mid and upper south at least.
I’m going to Puerto Rico at the end of February, so will do! Although I expect a major winter storm to occur while I’m gone on the trip.Don’t freak out…going to be warm first half of Feb. Work on those winter tans.
View attachment 167141View attachment 167142
At least it’s waiting til February so it doesn’t cook the books on what was probably the best January in recent memory. Temp wise. I can’t name many better
Yikes![]()
GFS maxing out the color scale and trying to bring a tornado outbreak to Mack View attachment 167155
Great example of the type of pattern we’re working with. AI has a pretty big torch, then a few days later, a nice snow event
Then
Yeah this pattern is screaming a big ice storm setting up somewhere. . Where ever the artic boundary just gets south of any location then stalls … interesting time aheadLC
1966-67 continues to provide the best ONI analog, and that winter had two critical, synoptic scale heavy snow events that affected, respectively, the Great Plains/Midwest and the Northeast. There were impressive cold intrusions, too, but gaps in between the Arctic intrusions. The ECMWF panels have generally performed the best so far this winter, and that series is showing a very strong Alaskan block in the 11-15 day period. So after a recovery, the cold and the frozen precipitation should make a comeback before we see a shift to a negative/neutral ENSO signature (now a pronounced moderate La Nina) with a very warm and dry Southwest+South Central USA. In short, we are not done with winter by any means, and I would not be surprised to see the area from North Texas to the Great Lakes and Northeast have a shot at a significant snow/ice event.
Guessing from the GEFS members, the mid-south will be in the cross-hairs. I'm thinking N., LA, MS, AR, TN...Yeah this pattern is screaming a big ice storm setting up somewhere. . Where ever the artic boundary just gets south of any location then stalls … interesting time ahead
Tampered down by what ? Mind askI dont see severe being as big an issue this spring. Should be tampered down a lot. I see dry being the main topic of conversation this spring , summer.
Good time to fish and golf! Bring it on.
Just opposite from what I have been reading on and hearing ….I dont see severe being as big an issue this spring. Should be tampered down a lot. I see dry being the main topic of conversation this spring , summer.