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Pattern Failboat February

This is the biggest challenge for models over the next couple of days into the weekend. Determining how much northern stream energy will escape/hang back/Pinch off. Not easy for NWP given the anomalous block and big stretched out TPV anom. This icon run atm looks solid to me IMG_5397.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The southern stream wave orientation was definitely preferable on the 12z icon though
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So was the TPV as well, seemed to suppress heights on eastern seaboard better. Everything about this run was a little different, placement of he tpv and speed/orientation of the southern wave. One good thing, is the final outcome was still wintry precip, even if it was lighter amounts and more ice. I always like it when different means result in similar ends
 
RBR71 said:
So was the TPV as well, seemed to suppress heights on eastern seaboard better. Everything about this run was a little different, placement of he tpv and speed/orientation of the southern wave. One good thing, is the final outcome was still wintry precip, even if it was lighter amounts and more ice. I always like it when different means result in similar ends
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Yup. Im 100% expecting a GFS run that isn’t as great as 18z, lots of small changes right under the big block that’s gonna make these runs look better or worse rather easy, so not holding my breath if the GFS isn’t as favorable. Still a great time for relying heavy on ens because this is a setup where a small donut in the northern stream might appear on a OP which changes an outcome but not on the ens or vise versa, and we should be paying attention to the main players right now (50/50, the southern stream wave, the elongated trough under the block, and something that could have a bigger influence in a couple days on modeling is that S/W moving on shore on the western coast). Just lots of changes to be expected
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yup. Im 100% expecting a GFS run that isn’t as great as 18z, lots of small changes right under the big block that’s gonna make these runs look better or worse rather easy, so not holding my breath if the GFS isn’t as favorable. Still a great time for relying heavy on ens because this is a setup where a small donut in the northern stream might appear on a OP which changes an outcome but not on the ens or vise versa, and we should be paying attention to the main players right now (50/50, the southern stream wave, the elongated trough under the block, and something that could have a bigger influence in a couple days on modeling is that S/W moving on shore on the western coast). Just lots of changes to be expected
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Well this looks like a run that is “not as great as 18z”

2088CBEF-1DA7-4725-AA94-0DC396D50067.png
 
rburrel2 said:
One thing about the PV being farther east with more ridging in between(like the euro stuff shows)... that's a huge help for CAD and surface cold. So it's not the worst thing if we keep that separation, imo, as long as we keep the height field low enough for snow in the mid-levels, and that seems to be possible with the crazy block mashing everything south.

It's sorta hard to know what to root for really, other than just hoping for a lower height field over us in general out ahead of the storm.

I'm personally very concerned about surface temps where I live because the more NNE oriented CAD feeds with the parent high way to our west generally leaves Oconee/Pickens county a few degree's warmer than places further East. It's especially awful for Oconee county.
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Good post. Those western areas have a really hard time with this; seems like by the time the cold makes it that far west (if at all) the precip is ending. Another concern I have for western areas is most guidance is insistent on a very pronounced dry slot. Got a late blooming transfer to the coast and skips NEGA and Western Upstate. We really need a sooner bloomer with a better cold press.
 
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