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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

packfan98 said:
Not much noise on the 6z GEFS.
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Yeah 6z gefs was pretty ugly but we still have arctic air not too far north, active southern stream and there will be a battle zone in there between these 2 airmasses. Where that sets up and if we can get a slp to develop and pull in some of that cold air, yet tbd obviously. I still like our chances around that timeframe and at least we still have the euro and the cmc to a degree on our side.
 
We just need to get to early next week and see where we are. But I think the CAD areas are going to setup right up into and ice storm.

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The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoensplume_small (2).gif
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoView attachment 131366
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I don't get how that thing haulz through the cold zones and comes to a screeching halt in the worst half of the circle.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoView attachment 131366
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We are setup fine if the threat develops as is being depicted today. There's really an all in approach with this. The same thing has to go right for any of the CAD areas to get wintery weather in North or South Carolina and really southern VA too. Even with that much cold air to our north, if you don't get a nice HP and I mean at least close to 1040+ HP, then everybody's goose is cooked in this situation because it really will be a perfect timing type of thing. Right now traditional CAD areas like NC/SC/GA should probably have their 1-10 scale around a 3 right now which is honestly great at this lead time. But I still don't like the setup for much snow outside of some onset stuff like last year. This has ICE storm written all over it tbh.
 
Man, upon further inspection that Euro OP run was a dadgum beast. 925MB temps were at -9 at the peak of the storm IMBY. I think the ptypes were off due to that look so that was probably 3-4" of sleet here. Probably some really, really bad ZR for S&E wake and the sandhills.
 
BullCityWx said:
Man, upon further inspection that Euro OP run was a dadgum beast. 925MB temps were at -9 at the peak of the storm IMBY. I think the ptypes were off due to that look so that was probably 3-4" of sleet here. Probably some really, really bad ZR for S&E wake and the sandhills.
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Yeah, I still get the feeling this is a major ice storm in the making for someone.. has that classic arctic air undercutting look to it.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah, I still get the feeling this is a major ice storm in the making for someone.. has that classic arctic air undercutting look to it.
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*IF* this happens

Moisture aint gonna be an issue, we know that from the last month. Wherever that gradient sets up, you better hope you're north of that ZR line.
 
I think as usual it's going to be BOTH. LOL easy question, messin' around, but some will fail and some will win. Overall, I think if you are in the North of I-20 to I-40 with 85 corridor areas, you have time for sure. South of 20....not your year again, IMO.
 
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