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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

6z GFS now showing something similar to the overnight euro. It is quicker which allows for most of the precip to fall as rain before the eventual change over to "other types":

Day 7:
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Day 8:
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packfan98 said:
Not much noise on the 6z GEFS.
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Yeah 6z gefs was pretty ugly but we still have arctic air not too far north, active southern stream and there will be a battle zone in there between these 2 airmasses. Where that sets up and if we can get a slp to develop and pull in some of that cold air, yet tbd obviously. I still like our chances around that timeframe and at least we still have the euro and the cmc to a degree on our side.
 
We just need to get to early next week and see where we are. But I think the CAD areas are going to setup right up into and ice storm.

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The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoensplume_small (2).gif
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoView attachment 131366
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I don't get how that thing haulz through the cold zones and comes to a screeching halt in the worst half of the circle.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The GEFS is trying to slow the trip to phase 4. It'd be nice to avoid it. Heard the Euro does avoid it but haven't seen it. I do like having cold air nearby. Likely favors climo areas of nw NC. Us along and especially south of 85 need a lot of help imoView attachment 131366
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We are setup fine if the threat develops as is being depicted today. There's really an all in approach with this. The same thing has to go right for any of the CAD areas to get wintery weather in North or South Carolina and really southern VA too. Even with that much cold air to our north, if you don't get a nice HP and I mean at least close to 1040+ HP, then everybody's goose is cooked in this situation because it really will be a perfect timing type of thing. Right now traditional CAD areas like NC/SC/GA should probably have their 1-10 scale around a 3 right now which is honestly great at this lead time. But I still don't like the setup for much snow outside of some onset stuff like last year. This has ICE storm written all over it tbh.
 
Man, upon further inspection that Euro OP run was a dadgum beast. 925MB temps were at -9 at the peak of the storm IMBY. I think the ptypes were off due to that look so that was probably 3-4" of sleet here. Probably some really, really bad ZR for S&E wake and the sandhills.
 
BullCityWx said:
Man, upon further inspection that Euro OP run was a dadgum beast. 925MB temps were at -9 at the peak of the storm IMBY. I think the ptypes were off due to that look so that was probably 3-4" of sleet here. Probably some really, really bad ZR for S&E wake and the sandhills.
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Yeah, I still get the feeling this is a major ice storm in the making for someone.. has that classic arctic air undercutting look to it.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah, I still get the feeling this is a major ice storm in the making for someone.. has that classic arctic air undercutting look to it.
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*IF* this happens

Moisture aint gonna be an issue, we know that from the last month. Wherever that gradient sets up, you better hope you're north of that ZR line.
 
I think as usual it's going to be BOTH. LOL easy question, messin' around, but some will fail and some will win. Overall, I think if you are in the North of I-20 to I-40 with 85 corridor areas, you have time for sure. South of 20....not your year again, IMO.
 
BullCityWx said:
Also, I think what really spooked me with that euro setup is in ice storms, we always seem to be left with a decaying airmass. That doesnt seem to be the case here.

Before anyone swoops in and tells me, YES I KNOW THIS IS DAY 8+
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actually, for the bulk of the precip, it's more like day 9 ;)
 
One negative is it seems this storm will rely on cad building in during the storm… that’s typically always delayed by several hours from whatever the models show, and can bust on the too cold side. Really too early to worry much about details like that though. What we really need is for tpv to really rotate in ahead of the storm. Models are all over the place on how it evolves but we really need a lobe to dive hard out ahead of the storm to push the boundary south and set up the confluence.

Outside of that, we really need the shortwave to trend slower and stronger, imo. Slower allows potential confluence to build in more… and stronger increases that gradient… if we get it strong enough to have a Miller B look like the euro shows it turns 85-900mb winds to out of the southeast which really sets off adiabatic cooling against the mountains with the strong wedge underneath.
 
SnowNiner said:
Pacific convection always seems to fight against us every winter. That to me seems to be the reason we struggle each year.
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Yeah… we’re obviously in a bad cycle with that, but on the bright side if you look at the past perhaps that could be ending soon. Maybe the end of this extended La Niña and going into a neutral ENSO or weak El Niño may help with that. That seemed to happen after that horrible 2011-12 winter and set us up for for several decent years 2013-2018. Here now the good thing that I can say for the MJO is that it looks to going low amp or into COD which should lessen its impact a bit.
 
rburrel2 said:
One negative is it seems this storm will rely on cad building in during the storm… that’s typically always delayed by several hours from whatever the models show, and can bust on the too cold side. Really too early to worry much about details like that though. What we really need is for tpv to really rotate in ahead of the storm. Models are all over the place on how it evolves but we really need a lobe to dive hard out ahead of the storm to push the boundary south and set up the confluence.

Outside of that, we really need the shortwave to trend slower and stronger, imo. Slower allows potential confluence to build in more… and stronger increases that gradient… if we get it strong enough to have a Miller B look like the euro shows it turns 85-900mb winds to out of the southeast which really sets off adiabatic cooling against the mountains with the strong wedge underneath.
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I think it depends on where you are. If I am in the upstate, especially along and south of 85, the cold air building in during the event would concern me.
 
Generally i'm still pretty pessimistic; i still have property in the webb camp of "dang, lot of things need to go right"

That being said there's some features (CAD high of yet to be determined strength/placement, nice feed of moisture) that substantiate an argument the other way for some folks (definitely i40 favored) to see something falling that's not rain

i'm paying attention to that first finger of frontogen precip- it's beginning to sneak inside day 7 and sometimes those features can pack surprises for people

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i've been single for a bit and have seen a lot of first dates- sometimes i have a great feeling beforehand by how we're texting, by the signs im seeing, etc and i may tell a friend or two "i think this may go really well!". with others... i have a feeling that it will be a one and done deal and don't tell my friends, but who knows?

this storm? i'm not telling my friends about. but who knows?
 
rburrel2 said:
One negative is it seems this storm will rely on cad building in during the storm… that’s typically always delayed by several hours from whatever the models show, and can bust on the too cold side. Really too early to worry much about details like that though. What we really need is for tpv to really rotate in ahead of the storm. Models are all over the place on how it evolves but we really need a lobe to dive hard out ahead of the storm to push the boundary south and set up the confluence.

Outside of that, we really need the shortwave to trend slower and stronger, imo. Slower allows potential confluence to build in more… and stronger increases that gradient… if we get it strong enough to have a Miller B look like the euro shows it turns 85-900mb winds to out of the southeast which really sets off adiabatic cooling against the mountains with the strong wedge underneath.
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Yeah, on the EPS it still more resembles a cold front with less CAD to me. Cold and high pressure is west trying to get over the mountains in time. The cold needs to get ahead of it and cad down prior to the storm. Doesn't look that way to me yet. I'm a bit pessimistic about right now, dunno. ?‍♂️
 
ILMRoss said:
this storm? i'm not telling my friends about. but who knows?
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It's like you met a girl and dont wanna jinx it ?

The pessimistic folks arent wrong. This is an high reward/high risk scenario. It wouldnt surprise me to see it go either way but maybe less surprised to see it fall apart.
 
BullCityWx said:
It's like you met a girl and dont wanna jinx it ?

The pessimistic folks arent wrong. This is an high reward/high risk scenario. It wouldnt surprise me to see it go either way but maybe less surprised to see it fall apart.
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Feel like we should get a good general sense of whether there will be a winter storm or not with the 12z runs.
 
BullCityWx said:
I think it depends on where you are. If I am in the upstate, especially along and south of 85, the cold air building in during the event would concern me.
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The key on it is really the strength of the HP. Both the EURO and Icon had 1040mb+ highs in good position. Both the February 1994 and February 2003 storms had 1038-1040mb highs in similar positions and we saw the CAD had no problem building in during those storms… each had temperatures well into the 60s and 70s the day before. If that high is something weak like 1035mb or lower then it’s fighting a losing battle and you end up with a 34 degree rain.
 
rburrel2 said:
Actually I take that back, maybe it'll be a little longer before we know, lol.
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I think it might be time to just start treating the GFS as a short range model and not even look at what it spits out past 96 hours. I fairly certain that’s what the WPC has started doing
 
If this does not work out it may be a good while before we get another chance. The 6z GFS shows 60's and 70's late in the run. We may have to wait until mid or late February to get another shot. We would most likely have ice then, while VA would get the snow.
 
JHS said:
If this does not work out it may be a good while before we get another chance. The 6z GFS shows 60's and 70's late in the run. We may have to wait until mid or late February to get another shot. We would most likely have ice then, while VA would get the snow.
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Plenty of snows in NC/SC well into late March early april timeframes throughout history. P type isn’t the focus. Storm signals.
 
Somosdel said:
Plenty of snows in NC/SC well into late March early april timeframes throughout history. P type isn’t the focus. Storm signals.
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The reason I say mostly ice for us is that this looks a lot like 1989 to me and that is what occurred then at, at least with the 1st system. SC in the CAD area, and much of NC got ice with that one, with sleet and some snow within about 40 or so miles from the VA border. The southern part of VA got pounded with snow if I remember right. That 2nd one was snow, but we just lucky in the west with it. That could very well have been an I-95 and east storm.

Of course, we get big snowstorms in February and March with 1983 and 2004 being the big ones, but I do not think it happens this time.
 
JHS said:
The reason I say mostly ice for us is that this looks a lot like 1989 to me and that is what occurred then at, at least with the 1st system. SC in the CAD area, and much of NC got ice with that one, with sleet and some snow within about 40 or so miles from the VA border. The southern part of VA got pounded with snow if I remember right. That 2nd one was snow, but we just lucky in the west with it. That could very well have been an I-95 and east storm.

Of course, we get big snowstorms in February and March with 1983 and 2004 being the big ones, but I do not think it happens this time.
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The first storm in February 1989 was a lot of ice/sleet that changed to snow for the Carolinas and the second storm a few days later was a classic Miller A with heavy snow for central and eastern Carolinas… very little ice with that.

Edit: looking at that first storm on Webb’s map it was basically all snow for the I-40 corridor a north and lot of it. Widespread 8-12”+
 
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Be wary... 2 days ago my co-workers in St Louis were under NAM 3K and HRRR accumulations of 9 to 11 inches within 10 hours of the event on Tuesday night. They barely got an inch.

It's not just the Carolinas that are struggling with the pattern.
 
Chazwin said:
The first storm in February 1989 was a lot of ice/sleet that changed to snow for the Carolinas and the second storm a few days later was a classic Miller A with heavy snow for central and eastern Carolinas… very little ice with that.
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That 1st storm could have been worse in SC if the cold air had come in faster. We lost around .5 or so here to just rain, before the colder air got here after dark. That storm gave my area a ton of ice and we had big chunks of it under trees after it fell off. We did not get that to happen in 1999 or 2002. I am not sure how we kept power through it. We wasted at least 4-5 inches of snow here with the 2nd one because the temp stayed at around 33 most of the day. We should have had at least 7-8 inches on the ground but did not.
 
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