If we can get enough sun today, I think a lot of areas could push 80. Winds here are already out of the ssw and should start picking up soon
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
February is a torch. Who could have possibly seen this coming?!?!
NoSnowATL
Member
Second shot at 84 today. Feel like temp should be close to 90 with all the humidity.
Oh man, we might have to pull our light jackets out:
Friday
Showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. Temperature falling to around 56 by 5pm. South wind 13 to 16 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
?
Friday
Showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. Temperature falling to around 56 by 5pm. South wind 13 to 16 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
?
Next week holds legit possibility for 80s with maybe a day or 2 with advection of air from texas/Mexico thanks to the digging energy far south in MX 
SnowNiner
Member
And that lack of snow has been the case for a very long time…
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Wow, that sums up the last few years right there. Cold west, warm east. Western trough has been a thing for a while. Pacific has hated us for years now. Hopefully next year we get a moderate nino to put the jet right in a sweet spot for western ridging.
iGRXY
Member
Record warmth next week just to return to a more winter time pattern. If this was mid January I would be licking my chops for some type of overrunning/CAD look here. Now we are looking at just more CAD and the EPS shows by Next Saturday the CAD signature showing up on the smooth ensemble mean. We are going to get a pretty serious 50/50 starting next Saturday, then with a building -NAO we keep the 50/50 region favorable. That means get ready for more clouds and 40s come March.
ATLwxfan
Member
Who knows. We could go ENSO neutral and back into Nina for all we know.
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Gefs following something more alike to the TP forcing in later Feb/early March, -NAO is going to put a damper eventually, but there’s going to be plenty of warmth mixed in due to the persistent -PNA/very unfavorable pacific 
ATLwxfan
Member
Record warmth next week just to return to a more winter time pattern. If this was mid January I would be licking my chops for some type of overrunning/CAD look here. Now we are looking at just more CAD and the EPS shows by Next Saturday the CAD signature showing up on the smooth ensemble mean. We are going to get a pretty serious 50/50 starting next Saturday, then with a building -NAO we keep the 50/50 region favorable. That means get ready for more clouds and 40s come March.
GFS gives me hope that we can punt that look with a resilient ridge. GEFS was favorable too
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Going to make a run at 80F today, forecasted high is 78, yesterday topped out at 76 with a forecasted high of 72. Daffodils are past peak, ornamental cherrys are past peak, and dogwoods are starting to bloom. Pretty nuts for mid Feb.
The GFS stopped giving me hope of anything a long time ago.. lol. Seriously though the SER does look to continue to be a major player, however there is no denying that it looks like that TPV is going to be one too. Like I posted last night, it looks like we’re going to have a lot of big swings in temperatures in the coming weeks… it’s almost got a late February/March 1989 feel to it.
ATLwxfan
Member
Perhaps but I’ve seen scenarios where the TPV favors cold out west and warm in the southeast also. Let’s see.
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iGRXY
Member
Putting your faith in the GFS is the first issue. Using it or it's Ensembles is useless now. Any -NAO you get will damper the SER, it's just a matter of how much. The SSWE also supports some form of high latitude blocking as well so this is very likely to be realized. The only reason we are warm is because we are in February during a 3 year La Nina with an unfavorable MJO for the icing on the cake. But we are moving away from that. Still doubt we get any winter weather, but expect to go into a cooler March at least right now.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Wow; opened the thread this am and thought I must be in with the North Dakota crowd. All this hoping for the punishing, relentless, doozy of a winter to finally end. I guess all the record cold and snow will push people into wanting record heat in the middle of Feb? I've never seen such a weenie page on here before. I guess there are only about 5 or 6 of us that actually like seasonal weather in Feb now? 
NoSnowATL
Member
CorrectWow; opened the thread this am and thought I must be in with the North Dakota crowd. All this hoping for the punishing, relentless, doozy of a winter to finally end. I guess all the record cold and snow will push people into wanting record heat in the middle of Feb? I've never seen such a weenie page on here before. I guess there are only about 5 or 6 of us that actually like seasonal weather in Feb now?
JHS
Member
GSP is hinting that CAD might mess it up for many of us though.
JHS
Member
That was a crazy year from February through early May. I'm doubtful we ever see another period like it.
JHS
Member
Today is lost it seems. Stuck in clouds and 55 and betting that's as high as it goes. Next week probably lost too. All of it.