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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

mrdaddyman said:
I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
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We've had Greenland ridging, but not much else imo. For a -NAO to be really effective, it needs to trap a legit cold vortex underneath it (50/50 low). That's what CADs us and pushes the storm track south. Our patterns have been missing that I think. We've had baby, wussy ones that haven't worked for us imo.
 
SnowNiner said:
We've had Greenland ridging, but not much else imo. For a -NAO to be really effective, it needs to trap a legit cold vortex underneath it (50/50 low). That's what CADs us and pushes the storm track south. Our patterns have been missing that I think. We've had baby, wussy ones that haven't worked for us imo.
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Biggest issue is we get 50/50's but we never have any legit cold air accessible for it.
 
You don’t see this everyday. Not sure I’ve seen this verbatim look in a few years. Atmospheric napalm.

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This GFS run is better in line with a negative PNA getting the SER to crank. More in line with the pattern persistence on continued warmth.

Lessening snow prospects for I-95 cities too which is fun

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Break out the shorts and the lawnmower! Winter is over!!! And I’m not one one to give up until mid March… but I see the handwriting on the wall this year… you can’t buy a 384 hour GFS fantasy storm! When you can’t buy that… you ain’t gonna get the real thing..
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Break out the shorts and the lawnmower! Winter is over!!! And I’m not one one to give up until mid March… but I see the handwriting on the wall this year… you can’t buy a 384 hour GFS fantasy storm! When you can’t buy that… you ain’t gonna get the real thing..
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It’s a fair point. We’ve had like 2 storm threads total for the season. Even last year we had several more.


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That is my feeling is time we get the ssw to effectively propagate to the troposphere, it will be too late for most. Glad I saw a few winter events if we don't see anything else
 
Itryatgolf said:
That is my feeling is time we get the ssw to effectively propagate to the troposphere, it will be too late for most. Glad I saw a few winter events if we don't see anything else
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I'm increasingly thinking we've seen the peak of winter here too. Absolutely no cold air on the apps through the rest of the month. I mean yeah it can snow big in March here but I'm gonna have to believe it when I see it after the last couple storms somehow missed us. Still down about 6 inches from climo which is sad. If the Christmas storm was the peak that's awful because it was so cold and windy it wasn't even fun
 
So finally getting a chance to look at the teleconnections today and while they don’t look particularly great…I am noticing a little improvement in a couple things. The AO looks to stay squarely positive for the rest of the month… maybe with the SSWE that is taking place right we could see that have some effect on it as we go into March, but that’s also the time that we start to see the SPV getting itself wound up as we approach the equinox. There are some signs that we could see the NAO go negative in early March… this has been the theme it seems like for the the decade. The PNA is going to stay negative but the most noticeable change is on the MJO… it continues to progress steadily and head towards cold phases with the biggest difference now being that there are a lot of ensemble members that actually want to amp it up a bit in those cold phases… if it does that could allow the PNA to be more neutral going into March. Now I don’t know how much it’s going to help things as I think it’s likely that areas outside the mountains and adjacent foothills end up shut out in the snow department the rest of the way, but I still think that more climo favored areas like the mountains, foothills and on up into the western half of VA could still see a decent storm or two before all is said and done. I do think that we will have to deal with plenty of CAD chilly rains
 
Chazwin said:
So finally getting a chance to look at the teleconnections today and while they don’t look particularly great…I am noticing a little improvement in a couple things. The AO looks to stay squarely positive for the rest of the month… maybe with the SSWE that is taking place right we could see that have some effect on it as we go into March, but that’s also the time that we start to see the SPV getting itself wound up as we approach the equinox. There are some signs that we could see the NAO go negative in early March… this has been the theme it seems like for the the decade. The PNA is going to stay negative but the most noticeable change is on the MJO… it continues to progress steadily and head towards cold phases with the biggest difference now being that there are a lot of ensemble members that actually want to amp it up a bit in those cold phases… if it does that could allow the PNA to be more neutral going into March. Now I don’t know how much it’s going to help things as I think it’s likely that areas outside the mountains and adjacent foothills end up shut out in the snow department the rest of the way, but I still think that more climo favored areas like the mountains, foothills and on up into the western half of VA could still see a decent storm or two before all is said and done. I do think that we will have to deal with plenty of CAD chilly rains
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Kinda suprised if this SSW is as intense as forecast that the teleconnections aren't showing the ao/nao tanking but SSW events are tricky
 
No chance of rain in the forecast but it's raining. Why can't that happen when it's cold?
Cloudy, with a low around 45. Southeast wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday
Cloudy through mid morning, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
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EPS looks bad for the first 10 days but there is a little noise in the last 4 days.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Kinda suprised if this SSW is as intense as forecast that the teleconnections aren't showing the ao/nao tanking but SSW events are tricky
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They are tricky. Let’s also remember that it’s not just a forecasted one at this point… it’s actually occurring and being observed. Also they take about two weeks before they might start to have an impact on those two teleconnections. It will be interesting to see since this SSW is now being observed if we start to see a reaction to that in the AO/NAO modeling in the next few days. Either way, there is still some very cold air available in Canada and ensembles to continue to hint at periods of CAD and more snowfall across the Northeast in the next couple weeks
 
Sure the 06z GFS spits out a fantasy storm that won’t verify but at least you can see the power of a -NAO and how rare it is.


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