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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

NoSnowATL said:
With a strong SER it will be dry.
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Probably so and then the drought will be back just in time for summer. We could use a 2 week dry period, but I'm afraid we may get 2-3 months with little rain at all. Something like 93 when a wet early spring turned extremely dry. From June 1 through September 1 that year I measured only .30.
 
Here are some things that could be in our favor to get more cold shots in march than we’ve seen in January and February. A -PNA certainly isn’t great to see but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold around here. Certainly seeing signals of CAD show up but also periods of warmth rivaling 80s at times. Once we introduce more blocking on top of us all we will need is a transient ridge out west to be able to make some magic happen. Maybe it does maybe it doesn’t but that’s all you got if you love winter weather and cold. We are still a long way out tons of things can change but I like the MJO also becoming much more favorable as well so to say we may have more cold shots in march than we’ve had in January and February I don’t think is an absurd statement. 1676387156112.pngD338234E-1DC7-40C9-B2BB-3D6C7DDBAB7B.png48C194F1-15BC-4253-B140-AED6B58E4B2A.jpeg9DCC8725-2F8C-474B-B9B7-1FF67125D4E8.jpegBE800B0B-C22F-4FF3-B2F4-2119490108C8.jpeg
 
ATLwxfan said:
But hopefully dry and sunny if the storm track is further north! A much better spring IMHO


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I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
 
Chazwin said:
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
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We could use a little bit of a break in the rain. We’re already at 11.3 for year following almost 10 inches in December. We are water logged. I wish we could save a little bit for summer.
 
Chazwin said:
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. We’ve seen a strong SER for most of the last 6 weeks and we’ve continued to see plenty of rainfall. We’re about to come out of a 3 year long La Niña and have not seen any major long term droughts in the SE… I wouldn’t bet on that changing
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Yeah I think we have a pacific dominated pattern that’s our base state and I’m not sure ENSO really effects us much. We will be mostly warm with varying degrees of wet. But one can only hope we can get some more dry days in the mix.


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ATLwxfan said:
Yeah I think we have a pacific dominated pattern that’s our base state and I’m not sure ENSO really effects us much. We will be mostly warm with varying degrees of wet. But one can only hope we can get some more dry days in the mix.


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I still think the ENSO is having a considerable effect. I really think the reason we continue to see an overall wet pattern is because of the warm SSTs in the Gulf and western Atlantic just leading to more water vapor. It’s even been noted that the general storm track has basically been exactly what you would expect with a Niña, but the moisture in flow has been much greater.
 
Bama1980 said:
We could use a little bit of a break in the rain. We’re already at 11.3 for year following almost 10 inches in December. We are water logged. I wish we could save a little bit for summer.
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No doubts there. My yard is basically waterlogged and has puddles in it that have basically been there since early December. I know they’ve been there that long because they completely froze up during the cold snap at Christmas and my dogs would run out there to slide and play on them.
 
weatherfide said:
I didn't see anything interesting on the GFS run. Maybe there will be some interesting members in the ensemble mix.
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I did. Continued increase in -NAO on CMC and GFS in the medium to long range. No matter how you slice it, it will be beneficial in pushing storm track south and blocking high pressures to the north along with squashing the SER somewhat.
 
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
 
SD said:
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
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Just have to hope the NAO doesn't pull a hammy...or a knee, or a foot, or a shoulder, or ribs, or....
 
SD said:
The Christian McCaffery model is pretty close to how we would have to see things evolve to get a -nao and at least make an attempt to get cold enough.

Just saw the rest of the gfs yep that's what we want
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I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I used to be a huge proponent of the -NAO but, is it just me, or has the -NAO that has shown up the last couple of winters not done squat for us? Not sure why it has just been an epic failure lately.
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We haven't had a good west based or even real closed -nao since probably March 2018. We had that thing that qualified as a -nao a couple winters ago but it really was never what we needed
 
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