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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Chazwin said:
In your location I can’t imagine that you don’t see at least one 2-4 incher by April 1st. I honestly don’t remember the last time we saw a mild January and February that didn’t turn cooler than average consistently for March and at least the first part of April. Heck even the dumpster fire that was 2012 had a number of March cool shots and if I remember your area scored a pretty big storm in late February that year
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Wouldn’t hold my breath to that counting on snow much anymore se before April ? Lol
 
LOL / Saddle up: The 2/22 storm still lives on on the 6z GFS: Been watching this model spit this out for this time period from several days back. Course the Canadian is telling it, its off by about 100 miles. The Canadian trumped all others last go round from the ULL.

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Outside of a 2 day trough like March 12th on the CFS: Its a torch on everything I can see, ensembles/Ops. Minus the GFS image above, that will be wrong , no doubt: The odds we get shut out in Greensboro are at 95% + right now. I see zero hope outside a volcano erupting and the ashe residue blocking the sun . SER is the champ, once again.
 
NCSNOW said:
Outside of a 2 day trough like March 12th on the CFS: Its a torch on everything I can see, ensembles/Ops. Minus the GFS image above, that will be wrong , no doubt: The odds we get shut out in Greensboro are at 95% + right now. I see zero hope outside a volcano erupting and the ashe residue blocking the sun . SER is the champ, once again.
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Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
 
iGRXY said:
Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
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Yeah… we’ve certainly been in a pattern that promotes cold shots it seems every weekend. I definitely think it’s likely that areas outside of the mountains and foothills will likely get shut out the rest of the year, but we’ve seen to many late February and March storms over the years to rule out the mountain and foothills to be able to score
 
iGRXY said:
Still a month of reasonable time period for winter weather. Best chance likely comes in early March when we likely go into a
-PNA/-NAO pattern if we can get some high latitude blocking from the SSWE, which means CAD for days. We also have been lucky that the cold air is own our side of the earth and is wound up so it’s available. But that’s about the best case scenario right now. But CAD is also how we score 8/10x so I’m not throwing in the towel until the 2nd week of March.
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PNA forecasted to go negative. NAO is still a toss up to be honest…transiently negative at best. GFS has a parade of storms into the northeast finally giving them some snow and our welcomed CAD driven chilly rain.


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34° for the low here in my part (Nine Times). Supposed to get back into the 60s today.

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