There's that March 1960 everyone loves to reminisce about.
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Broken024
Member
This JB guy is the anti LoganElliott
I remember even March 2018 was so close to producing a big storm or two… just couldn’t get everything thing timed right. Even still CLT recorded trace snowfalls on 4 separate days
March 2018 is probably my 3rd favorite winter month since I moved out here. It got to a point by April I was bored with snow
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
This doesn't look good...
On this date,, 1973..
It’s been five decades since Wilmington picked up over a foot of snow in a 1973 storm.
The event began on February 9, 1973 and lasted through the following day.
Wilmington recorded 12.5″ of snow over the two-day storm.
1973 marks one of only two years the Port City has tallied more than a foot of snow.
It’s been five decades since Wilmington picked up over a foot of snow in a 1973 storm.
The event began on February 9, 1973 and lasted through the following day.
Wilmington recorded 12.5″ of snow over the two-day storm.
1973 marks one of only two years the Port City has tallied more than a foot of snow.
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lexxnchloe
Member
We are due!!
Snowlover87
Member
Snow weenies in Atlanta were not happy that day.
I was born a week prior to this amazing storm. 50 years later.... I'm still waiting for something very similar or better. The closest I've gotten was the February 12th, 2010 and January 10th, 2011 storms, respectively. Both storms produced 7 or more inches of snow. The former with around 9" and the latter at around 7 inches of snow.
Hopefully, I can one day witness a 1973 redux.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Absolute unit of a severe setup coming together for late next week...
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Cbmatt2408
Member
You know something is coming when they throw a 15% on a Day 7.
NCSNOW
Member
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Long Range: We can't stick a fork in winter just yet: waiting on the models to tell me to go ahead. GFS continuously barks for mischief Feb22-24. Granted I don't look at H5 reasons, ensembles and I should. went quite for the first time in several cycles at 6z. We will see if it comes back.
The CFS does the same first week of March. Shows a cold blast or two rolling through. So maybe we catch something on one of the last few cold fronts that whip through. Climo clock starts winding down past valentines Day. Got 4 good weeks left here in my neck of the woods. Then thats it outside some rogue circumstances that present themselves on average about every 20 years.
The CFS does the same first week of March. Shows a cold blast or two rolling through. So maybe we catch something on one of the last few cold fronts that whip through. Climo clock starts winding down past valentines Day. Got 4 good weeks left here in my neck of the woods. Then thats it outside some rogue circumstances that present themselves on average about every 20 years.
Eps and gefs continue to hint at a -nao and likely a high latitude blocking episode getting going the last 8-10 days of the month and going through a good part of March. I'm concerned it'll be too late and the pacific will only be marginally favorable.
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SnowNiner
Member
I have such little faith for anything in March, even in a good pattern. But if we can get the pacific to cooperate, AND, a 50/50 low for cad maybe we can sneak something in. This winter has made me want to keep hope longer than I normally would....even with frogs starting to croak at night, and trees starting to bud.
My thoughts may completely fail if so my bad but I think we make a run at 1 more opportunity maybe 2 before its over. My only concern is the pacific but we may have the tpv trapped in Canada do cold will at least be available
ATLwxfan
Member
Maybe but it’s so hard to bet against pattern persistence especially given how resilient it’s been since Christmas.
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griteater
Member
A few thoughts....the upper level signal of the MJO (200VP 1st image below) hasn't gotten stuck in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent this winter like it sometimes does, especially during La Nina. It has kept on cycling around the equator from Fall thru Winter. But when it's been in 8-1-2 (e.g. late Nov into Dec and in Jan), we haven't gotten the response we're looking for (western ridging).
Moving forward, 8-1-2-3 are all good this time of year historically, and we're about to make another run thru those phases with the VP signal moving east out of the Maritime Continent (2nd image). Will it help to impart western ridging this time or does persistence win out?? Only thing I can throw out here is that we may have, for the first time since Fall, a legit disruption to the persistent lower level La Nina trade winds along the dateline upcoming (3rd image along 180 longitude)...so maybe that helps to shake things up a bit. Of course, we also want to see the SSW go bonkers and downwell forcefully into the troposphere for a better shot at legit -AO/-NAO (need more time to let that one marinate and see how it shakes out)
Pattern discussion beats trying to hold off northward surging 500mb lows and warm noses (I think)
