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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

This has some legs. Energy fully onshore tmrw by 12z. Maybe partial sample by 00z tonight. That's kind of when I say "ok this is legit." It's a good sign to have these trends running into that benchmark.

06z euro took another leap toward GFS with more separation. They are now pretty similar at hr 90. Here is 00z vs 06z euro.

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Here's where the 12z NAM ended up FWIW
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While we track this marginal threat it’s pretty remarkable how incredibly warm we are forecasted to be in February. I mean this is gonna be record breaking. April temps for the majority of the month and maybe ITP Atlanta stays above freezing. It’s wild.


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I haven't really looked at this because the pattern isn't on our side and things have yet to trend good in the medium and short range for any threat so far this year. But I will say, this is at least going towards a more positive route, but it still needs work for it be a legit threat. ULL needs to close off sooner and further south for anyone along northern upstate and north into the piedmont to have a legit shot. One advantage to a nice wound up ULL is that it will make and drive it's own colder air and if it goes negative tilt at a good time, then you will really be able to pump the moisture flow. BL temps aren't good but they aren't awful either. Rate driven stuff can score big, but again you need a perfect ULL track and for it to neg tilt at the perfect time.
 
SD said:
Your friendView attachment 132267

Not so muchView attachment 132268
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I’m expecting lots of rain with this system. And that’s all. I’m tired of trying to go for needles in the haystack .. I do believe we will have more shots at legit winter weather come late February and march .. but these piss poor wanna be events can F off
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
could work for WNCView attachment 132269
Click to expand...

This. I'm fully expecting this will end up being a climo West paste job, East cold rain event, as usual. Not expecting anything else out of it. Doesn't mean I won't keep an eye on it though, lol. I'll wait to see what the EURO says, as always.
 
ICON has been decent at time, UK also has sniffed out upper level changes.... GFS all over the place always lol and Euro still the best but trending right. This one may have legs (I'll reserve cautious excitement until I see 12z Euro)
 
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