Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[accu35]

"major crush job for the mountains WITH THAT LOOK though."

Euro showing some good love for the mountains

 

[SD]

Where the snow does fall on the GFS it melts pretty quick outside of the areas with a substantial accumulation
View attachment 020623.mp4

 

[ATLwxfan]

That 18z GFS was ugly for Georgia


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[NoSnowATL]

That 18z GFS was ugly for Georgia


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Looks like more of the same. Rain rain and more rain.

 

[Stormlover]

 

[ATLwxfan]

This is unlikely to impact our weather for the better with our raging +AO and the total disconnect between the stratosphere and the troposphere.


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[WEATHERBOYROY]

Rgem and Icon looking interesting.....just need a little more SW dig and a surface low to develop in the GOM And a million dollars while you're at it!

 

[CaryWx]

This is unlikely to impact our weather for the better with our raging +AO and the total disconnect between the stratosphere and the troposphere.


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Not out of the realm this could drive a neg AO

 

[rburrel2]

hmmm...

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Last 3 runs on the gfs... sfc temps are still a big problem but it's an interesting trend.

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

UK is a bowling ball and shows the foothills some love.

 

[HKY1994]

Gefs is interesting


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[rburrel2]

wow...

 

[rburrel2]

Ukmet would be a March 2009 type hammer job for the same locations if it wasn't a touch too warm at the surface. If we got a 5h low like it depicts I'd imagine there would be more snow accumulation under the heaviest bands. It's showing -4 850s and -2 925 temps in a lot of locations and depicting them around 36-37 at the surface with rain.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gefs is interesting


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A few ensembles skewing this a bit .. but in terms of trends if we want to get some snow out of this I could certainly see these trends being favorable. If we can get a good bowling ball upper low set up over us we can get cold enough air up too along with higher rates to be able to overcome these boundary layer temps .. long way to go here but it’s interesting to be able to get a trend like this as we close in on 100 hours

 

[accu35]

A few ensembles skewing this a bit .. but in terms of trends if we want to get some snow out of this I could certainly see these trends being favorable. If we can get a good bowling ball upper low set up over us we can get cold enough air up too along with higher rates to be able to overcome these boundary layer temps .. long way to go here but it’s interesting to be able to get a trend like this as we close in on 100 hours

There’s a few good members this run

 

[accu35]

short range models are coming tomorrow for this weekend event . Can a mod start a thread?

 

[superjames1992]

Ukmet would be a March 2009 type hammer job for the same locations if it wasn't a touch too warm at the surface. If we got a 5h low like it depicts I'd imagine there would be more snow accumulation under the heaviest bands. It's showing -4 850s and -2 925 temps in a lot of locations and depicting them around 36-37 at the surface with rain.

Yeah, realistically that’s likely 32-33 with heavy snow.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Not trying to hype it up or anything, but as I said about 3 days ago it was just a matter of time till you saw the surface reflect the trend at the 500 level. Finally did it at 6Z.

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro major changes, GFS still trending right direction, paste job western NC.... but I'm telling you we have a chance