Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[Stormlover]

I think you let GW influence all of your forecasts. You do not even entertain the possibility of anything cold. Your biased. UHI is real and you know it. Also, UAH is the best indicator of exactly what's happening in our atmosphere. Can't trust surface readings in urban areas.

Bingo

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It's impressive right now probably less than .25 here

Looking out my window it’s crazy foggy. Don’t see it like this most of the time.

 

[Webberweather53]

No need to get personal because you disagree.

There was nothing "personal" in my response to Nicky.

 

[superjames1992]

It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics

Amazing April will deliver! Cold rain Miller A coastals!!!

 

[superjames1992]

Looking out my window it’s crazy foggy. Don’t see it like this most of the time.

It’s foggy out here in Durham, too, but doesn’t seem to be as dense as down your way. Darn!

 

[Webberweather53]

The CFSv2 looks good here. Too bad it takes until about the 3rd week of March to get a legit -EPO and -NAO.

 

[Shaggy]

The CFSv2 looks good here. Too bad it takes until about the 3rd week of March to get a legit -EPO and -NAO.

View attachment 132211

Seems to be a new normal for us the last few years. Warmer winters and cooler springs with less severe storms east of the mountains while Dixie ally gets numerous tornado outbreaks.

 

[FallsLake]

A little cooler than I was thinking this morning. Got down to 36 (currently 37). Tops of cars were just wet but the neighbor's rooftops have frost.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Somebody in NGa may get some NAMage with this brief cold shot.


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[KyloG]

The CFSv2 looks good here. Too bad it takes until about the 3rd week of March to get a legit -EPO and -NAO.

View attachment 132211

Fantastic...normally I would be ready for warmer weather in March but any below normal weather will be welcome. Summer going to come no matter what.

 

[SD]

Eps is still warm toward the end but you can see the wheels in motion to start getting away from status quo

 

[SNOWMANN]

There's a mountain thread it's been dead. Fire away in there maybe some of the locals could help out

Nothing to report it's been a bummer up here too. Unless ur rich and live or can afford beech.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Nothing to report it's been a bummer up here too. Unless ur rich and live or can afford beech.

Yeah I mean these minor NW events get old after the 20th one lol. I'm at 3.5" on the year. 8,5" below average for this point. Been a slow one.

 

[BullCityWx]

I just noticed that wxbell meteograms will now show you how close you are to the next model grid point. The superiority of the euro is no big surprise considering my meteogram is 9 miles closer to the gridpoint on the euro vs. the GFS.

 

[rburrel2]

GFS has been advertising a decent setup in the 300ish hr timeframe for the last 3 or 4 runs now.. that appears to be our next window.

 

[rburrel2]

Dream High pressure situation on this run.

 

[SD]

GFS has been advertising a decent setup in the 300ish hr timeframe for the last 3 or 4 runs now.. that appears to be our next window.

This gfs run is a good example of perfect wave timing and goes back to the discussion about the poor timing we had over the weekend. Even in a sea of warm if you time waves perfect during the short cold shots we have you can get something but the chance of getting it right aren't great come hour 0 unfortunately.

On the positive side there's at least some evidence that we might see the SER get squished back during the 2/17-21 time period so at least the op gfs isn't showing something when say the eps mean is roasting. Again though it's a 24-48 hour window in all likelihood. At this lead time my money would be on something similar to what we had last week where we flatten the top of the SER and gradient then temp pattern from N to S. I'd be licking my chops if I were in the OKC to RIC corridor even that might be on the south end

 

[rburrel2]

This gfs run is a good example of perfect wave timing and goes back to the discussion about the poor timing we had over the weekend. Even in a sea of warm if you time waves perfect during the short cold shots we have you can get something but the chance of getting it right aren't great come hour 0 unfortunately.

On the positive side there's at least some evidence that we might see the SER get squished back during the 2/17-21 time period so at least the op gfs isn't showing something when say the eps mean is roasting. Again though it's a 24-48 hour window in all likelihood. At this lead time my money would be on something similar to what we had last week where we flatten the top of the SER and gradient then temp pattern from N to S. I'd be licking my chops if I were in the OKC to RIC corridor even that might be on the south end

Yep, but it's at least a window of opportunity, and still during peak climo. Maybe we can get lucky this time.

 

[Shaggy]

@SD Do we know if the lawn thread from.last year is gone? I was trying to recover a picture of my yard from last year and cant seem to find that thread

 

[NoSnowATL]

@SD Do we know if the lawn thread from.last year is gone? I was trying to recover a picture of my yard from last year and cant seem to find that thread