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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Webberweather53 said:
There’s a whole lotta up and very little down outside of this weekend
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I think you let GW influence all of your forecasts. You do not even entertain the possibility of anything cold. Your biased. UHI is real and you know it. Also, UAH is the best indicator of exactly what's happening in our atmosphere. Can't trust surface readings in urban areas.
 
With 5 days down and 23 to go in February GSO is -2.7. Thatll get wiped out this week, before a weekend retreat maybe next weekend.
We dont want leaf outs in February, it wrecks fruit crops,Peaches/Apples and strawberries. Hopefully we can mix in some upper 20's at night from time to time.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I think you let GW influence all of your forecasts. You do not even entertain the possibility of anything cold. Your biased. UHI is real and you know it. Also, UAH is the best indicator of exactly what's happening in our atmosphere. Can't trust surface readings in urban areas.
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Well I have to admit, it’s served me right the last several years and this year is another good example. UAH isn’t the surface and it certainly isn’t gospel, the uncertainty bars with satellite based temperature estimates are larger than surface based measurements, but I wouldn’t expect someone to understand or be willing to understand this fact if they don’t think AGW is real to begin with. UAH is gospel to AGW deniers who don’t know how these datasets are actually created to begin with, and they usually just blindly cherry pick the one that shows the least amount of warming (in this case UAH) to fit a certain narrative. If you feel insulted by this, so be it, but I used to be a denier like you and said these very things as recently as 6-7 years ago, so I understand the motivation behind what you’re alluding to

The UHI effect is just as real as the engine room intake bias in ships during the mid 20th century that plagued SST measurements in the 1930s-40s (which covered a much fraction of the globe than land based instruments & thus had a bigger impact on global temps), or the orbital drift bias in satellites, or the fact that they don’t even measure temperatures at the same location on the earth at the same time of the day in most cases. I could go on & on
 
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Why do i keep reading about the probability of a major strat warming in the next 2 weeks. Usually has downstream effects in the SE
 
CaryWx said:
Why do i keep reading about the probability of a major strat warming in the next 2 weeks. Usually has downstream effects in the SE
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It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics
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we get ,its gonna be warm overall...geez
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics
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Just reading some different things coming from Larry. Not quite so...well, pessimistic
 
Latest Euro seasonal for February

About +4C anomalies vs the 1993-2016 climate period. Would be looking at a top 5 warmest Feb on record since 1887 in places like Raleigh

55A45F9C-B4D9-42C0-96A4-AA18D780935B.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’ll be no less than about +3-4C above average once we hit mid month. These “cold shots” don’t even show up on the 5-7 day averaged anomalies, which shows they’re not really having much of an effect on the pattern, other than making it slightly less warm than it was going to be.
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No need to get personal because you disagree.
 
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