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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

I give this winter an F- . When you can’t even buy more than 2 crazy fantasy land snowstorms… it sucks!!!! I haven’t seen a good snow in years!!! Never been this long without a good 2 inch or better snow…. Very depressing.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, it definitely wasn't. UAH doesn't actually directly measure surface temperatures, which is what I was showing, so they're not even the same thing; apples-oranges.

Besides the point, other satellite based datasets like MSU's RSS, don't show quite the same level of cooling



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I believe the UAH readings are as accurate as it gets. Only using surface locations that have had the heat island affect built around them in recent decades isn't a good way to go.
 
Stormlover said:
I believe the UAH readings are as accurate as it gets. Only using surface locations that have had the heat island affect built around them in recent decades isn't a good way to go.
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You do realize that UAH doesn't actually measure surface temperatures right? It's a sfc - 5km AGL average.

Apples-oranges.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I give this winter an F- . When you can’t even buy more than 2 crazy fantasy land snowstorms… it sucks!!!! I haven’t seen a good snow in years!!! Never been this long without a good 2 inch or better snow…. Very depressing.
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Depending on where you live you might need to move to see a good two inches. The mountains will be where the vestiges of winter will remain in the mid south.


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Stormlover said:
Yep, but I also do not trust readings of sensors that have been in the same place forever while huge buildup of concrete heat islands go around them
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Well, clearly you don’t know how satellite based measurements work, because satellites are constantly moving & experience significant orbital decay over periods of months-years & they don’t measure the temperature even at the same time of the day at the same place on the earth. You have to model that before you even begin thinking about bias corrections. They also don’t directly measure temperature in-situ either like surface instruments do. All of this is besides the point that you tried (& failed horribly) to interject my point about surface temperatures being warm, with satellite-based estimates that don’t actually measure surface temperature to begin with. I recommend educating yourself on this topic before responding again
 
The indices are as bad as they get. AO and NAO raging positive. PNA doing deeply negative. The MJO may go into the circle later but I don't see how any winter weather happens unless its a March miracle. Which I have little hope for those anymore outside of a novelty event. Which I'll gladly take this year.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yes you can be above average anomaly wise and still our temps can go up and down .. like a rollercoaster. This was my point.. temps go up and down with continued chances for rain. That’s what I said .. that’s all View attachment 132189
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There’s a whole lotta up and very little down outside of this weekend
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The indices are as bad as they get. AO and NAO raging positive. PNA doing deeply negative. The MJO may go into the circle later but I don't see how any winter weather happens unless its a March miracle. Which I have little hope for those anymore outside of a novelty event. Which I'll gladly take this year.
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There’s nothing really to suggest that the indices would change during March. Maybe the effects of La Niña weaken a bit.


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Webberweather53 said:
There’s a whole lotta up and very little down outside of this weekend
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This weekend was down.. next weekend looks down as well.. let’s see where we’re at by next weekend. I’m sure another down period will show up by then as well per euro and Canadian ensembles it’ll be the next weekend. Let’s see what happens!
 
Another overrunning, Texas special at the end of the GFS run. I would bet money that that verifies.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
This weekend was down.. next weekend looks down as well.. let’s see where we’re at by next weekend. I’m sure another down period will show up by then as well per euro and Canadian ensembles it’ll be the next weekend. Let’s see what happens!
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It’ll be no less than about +3-4C above average once we hit mid month. These “cold shots” don’t even show up on the 5-7 day averaged anomalies, which shows they’re not really having much of an effect on the pattern, other than making it slightly less warm than it was going to be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’ll be no less than about +3-4C above average once we hit mid month. These “cold shots” don’t even show up on the 5-7 day averaged anomalies, which shows they’re not really having much of an effect on the pattern, other than making it slightly less warm than it was going to be.
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Again, I never said anything about being consistently below average. Roller coaster. That’s all. With chances of rain. That’s all. Thank you for reminding us though! We know this winter has sucked for sure.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Again, I never said anything about being consistently below average. Roller coaster. That’s all. With chances of rain. That’s all. Thank you for reminding us though! We know this winter has sucked for sure.
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It's a roller coaster filled with mostly ups and maybe 1 or 2 dips the next 2+ weeks & 2 is being very generous.

You know it's bad when the "cold shots" don't even register on the 5-day means.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_anom_5day-6354400.png
 
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