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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Lickdork said:
Temperatures continue to steadily fall during the daytime
tomorrow, with temps falling below zero along the coast during
the afternoon hours and wind chills in the -20s. Temps near -20
with wind chills around -40 expected across northern areas
during this timeframe.

Temperatures continue to fall tomorrow night as the cold
becomes downright dangerous. The center of the polar vortex is
expected to cross the area late tomorrow evening and shortly
after midnight, with temperatures dropping through after
midnight.

An unusual phenomena for our area is possible tomorrow night,
with guidance indicating that the tropopause could dip below the
peak of Mount Washington tomorrow night. While extremely rare,
the impact of this is that winds are likely to increase during
the overnight as the the wind becomes more compressed through
the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Combined with the bitterly
cold temperatures, wind chill values likely fall to as low as
-60 across northern areas, and -40 to -45 along the coastline.
Although unofficial, from the records we have been able to
gather, the coldest wind chill in Portland since 1948 was -43
degrees in 1971, so we are nearing wind chills values that most
have not seen in their lifetime.

this is a message from the NWS in Gray. The troposphere might dip below the summit of Mt Washington. The stratosphere is literally going to be kissing the ground! That’s how wild this arctic blast is for the ne

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Wow that's incredible. And yet almost none of this is plunging south. MBY is only forecast to get down to 22, just a run of the mill passage for early Feb.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
What could go wrong View attachment 132075
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It's not terrible for D7-11 and the euro has hinted at something similar. I think even if we got a decent upper low or gasp an upper low+coastal sfc low we are going to have massive BL issues and have to cool from the top down
 
SD said:
It's not terrible for D7-11 and the euro has hinted at something similar. I think even if we got a decent upper low or gasp an upper low+coastal sfc low we are going to have massive BL issues and have to cool from the top down
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CMC had a similar evolution but shows how easy it is to just get a transient cold trough push through and no low development .. ??‍♂️ we got nothing to lose who cares
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
CMC had a similar evolution but shows how easy it is to just get a transient cold trough push through and no low development .. ??‍♂️ we got nothing to lose who cares
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Yeah kind of depends on what you are looking for at this point. Getting some flakes in the air maybe whiten the mulch and tint the ground this is at least worth watching over the next week. Getting multiple inches of snow and shutting down the town for a few days this ain't that
 
SD said:
Yeah kind of depends on what you are looking for at this point. Getting some flakes in the air maybe whiten the mulch and tint the ground this is at least worth watching over the next week. Getting multiple inches of snow and shutting down the town for a few days this ain't that
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Exactly. I just want to see some flakes or some sleet pellets just to say I didn't get blanked for the 2nd time in the last 41 years.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ahh yes, another day 7-10 "threat". Those have worked out pretty well this winter.
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We’ve had fewer fantasy storms than we typically do. We will enjoy the next six hours despite the bitter dose of reality you continue to expose us to.

A widespread 1-2 incher would be just fabulous if only in my dreams.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Long range GEFS which looked absolutely bleak at this time has switched to having a fairly significant trough at the same time as we close in closer in time. Yeah in general we will end up seeing red anomalies over the south by months end but we do get these breaks of possibility where cold enough air reaches us and gives us a shot at something. An overwhelming ridge in the east and trough in the west and an almost complete flip given time. Although these troughs are in and out sort of deals not long lasting 5941C640-1E8C-40B6-A135-57DF8F2B741F.jpegDF2AFBDE-63C6-4AD4-B29E-9839D0C640CA.jpeg
 
1676138400-Q0xpeHI3YA8.png
 
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