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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Webberweather53 said:
If you understood how averages work, you'd quickly realize that you're not even remotely close to being below average for the winter by Feb 5th.

A +1.6F anomaly averaged over 60 days in KGSO isn't going to move much at all in 3-4 days.


Common sense goes a long ways.
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Lol. The averages say 1930-1931 was the warmest winter on Record for GSO. Full degree below that winter still despite the January Torchfest. Climate is Always changing ,hot- cold,cold -hot. Its never the same and runs in cycles. You are gifted and appreciated LR ,short range, any kind of forecasting. I love reading your post ,thoughts, reasoning. I just dont personally subscribe to the GW,Now called CC mantra, cause its a hijacked label to promote its all on manmade CO2 emissions. The climate, weather is always changing, and it isnt because of man.
 
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Webber do you think we still could see a late season winter opportunity in late February or early March? I know you mentioned that last week.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Doesn't matter how you slice it, it's been objectively unusually warm/torchy in the SE US. Leaf out is at least 3 weeks early this year.

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Some species like maples, willows and birches can easily survive cold snaps in late winter and spring. They will leaf out earlier, even in normal southern winters. The oaks, pecans, and sweet gums are all locked up in my area. Those species are susceptible to frost damage and will be the last to leaf out. So, yes the warmer weather has encouraged the early bloomers to take off. This winter doesn't seem too unusual to me.
 
coldfront22 said:
Webber do you think we still could see a late season winter opportunity in late February or early March? I know you mentioned that last week.
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The pattern looks a little worse than when I last looked at a few weeks ago in the extended & it looks more like we're going to stay in this warm pattern right to the end of February. There's at least hope for temporary breakdowns in the flow late Feb - March though because the wavelengths are rapidly shortening at that time of the year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The pattern looks a little worse than when I last looked at a few weeks ago in the extended & it looks more like we're going to stay in this warm pattern right to the end of February. There's at least hope for temporary breakdowns in the flow late Feb - March though because the wavelengths are rapidly shortening at that time of the year.
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This may be a stupid question, but why do the wavelengths shorten as we get closer to spring ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
This may be a stupid question, but why do the wavelengths shorten as we get closer to spring ?
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The wavelengths shorten because as we transition out of winter and the land + ocean surface in the NH begins to heat up relative to the S Hem, the jet stream significantly slows down + retreat, creating a more favorable setting for large meanders/cut off upper lows. The teleconnections we often look at in winter to deduce certain pattern changes/configurations begin to change a lot at that time of the year
 
So far February has been very active for winter weather. We've gotten a major crippling ice storm for the mid-south and a light novelty snow for Southern Virginia today. SC/NC wasn't far off from scoring here, it just didn't line up quite right.

There are hints of possibilities in the day 9-12 timeframe on the models right now too.

Really can't complain about any of that when the major indices have been and will continue to be pretty bad across board.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Next week is looking like a warm and nice weather week, im assuming cherry trees will probably start to bloom
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Probably not quite warm enough. Nights still look cool and typically you need a couple days up into the 70s to get much in the way of blossoms. I think we might have a shot 70s on Wednesday if we can get enough sun
 
Chazwin said:
Probably not quite warm enough. Nights still look cool and typically you need a couple days up into the 70s to get much in the way of blossoms. I think we might have a shot 70s on Wednesday if we can get enough sun
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Already saw a tree with a few pink buds can’t confirm if it was cherry though, but yeah Wednesday probably 70s with westerly flow, and Friday 70s in the WAA regime ahead the front
 
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