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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Once again as we get closer the MJO is almost completely avoiding the colder phases. Not that it matters much at this point though. Whatever is causing this every winter, and I have doubts it's La Nina since it seems like it was the same thing in 18-19 and 19-20 when there wasn't a La Nina, there won't be any change to our winters going forward. We've had what one good month in the last 5 years which was Jan 22?
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Until this changes, and the predominate forcing, convection changes in the pacific, I think our hobby is Don Quixote. Global warming (no matter the reason) and the rut the pacific is in, is just too much to overcome, imo.

I wish I knew what to look for to break out of this mold of western troughs.
 
SnowNiner said:
Until this changes, and the predominate forcing, convection changes in the pacific, I think our hobby is Don Quixote. Global warming (no matter the reason) and the rut the pacific is in, is just too much to overcome, imo.

I wish I knew what to look for to break out of this mold of western troughs.
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A positive PNA for starters. It’s more scarce than a negative NAO.


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SD said:
The fact that the 12z gfs backs the nao block that far west and we can't trough the SE is disappointing. You can see why there was excitement for late Feb and March but the pacific is going to ruin it
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You are right. The pattern was showing itself, but now the PAC is gonna shut that sh** down.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




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I've been saying that for weeks. The time we get the cold pattern it will be too late except for higher elevations. Back in December we didn't have this ssw event like now. That's only difference. Unfortunately a waste of a SSW imo.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




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We may not see the significant cold like we did here but I think enough cold can transverse to still give the upper SE a chance at snow in mid march. The evolution is very very similar to December’s
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I found this interesting from Alan! I’m sure if it develops and the cold comes it will be too little too late for most.




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Yes and the models were still having a difficult time seeing what that -NAO was going to do to the overall pattern even when the Pacific wasn’t great. I have feeling that we’ll start seeing ensembles start to react a little more to the -NAO in the next few days. I doubt we see a pattern that gives most of snow chances outside of the mountains, but I certainly could see north of I-40 and up into VA at least have a shot.
 
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