Pattern Fabulous February

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve spent the entire winter hoping the FV3 would be right. What does the 12z show?

Isnt even on TT

 

[Jon]

I’ve spent the entire winter hoping the FV3 would be right. What does the 12z show?

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[Jon]

My first question is why are degreed mets like JB looking at 10:1 ratio snow maps on TT that are obviously not a fault of the model but the algorithm used to calculate it?

It would be cool if Americans were smart enough to use a more conservative algorithm for snowfall maps but here we are....


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[SD]

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Insert banter gif

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[Stormdoc]

Well that is the best look I’ve seen from a 10 day Euro in weeks. Miracle March incoming?

 

[ajr]

12z euro finally punts the WAR out and gets to a more zonal flow towards the end of the run

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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11”...must be right

It’s his is the anti weather model

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why does JBs hate this model (FV).... its cold biased like him

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The NAM just came in 7 degrees colder than the 12Z run for 21Z Tuesday

 

[Six Mile Wx]

https://www.sciencealert.com/scient...r-ahead-we-can-really-predict-the-weather/amp

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow to the NAM, has warning criteria event for the mountains/foothills aswell, this is my sounding which would end up being sleet once those lower levels moisten up

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Tarheel1 ?

 

[Tarheel1]

@Tarheel1 ? View attachment 15823

Lol! I like this one better!

 

[Brick Tamland]

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Well, the FV3 got the December storm right, but has been showing fantasy storm after fantasy storm since January. But now the GFS is showing a good storm for NC and the northern half of SC. Do we not believe the old GFS, too? Are we to the point that if the Euro doesn't show the same thing we just toss it?

 

[Rain Cold]

Well, the FV3 got the December storm right, but has been showing fantasy storm after fantasy storm since January. But now the GFS is showing a good storm for NC and the northern half of SC. Do we not believe the old GFS, too? Are we to the point that if the Euro doesn't show the same thing we just toss it?

The FV3 continues to show at least some frozen, while the GFS and CMC also do between times when they don’t. I wouldn’t toss them outright, but wth the Euro at least beginning with a little mix across the north after showing rain on the last run, it might give enough confidence that at least a little wintry precip at the onset would be possible, especially with the NAM coming in colder, although it is the longer range NAM, which you could probably toss and expect to trend warmer, along with the FV3 which should eventually cave to the others with its ridiculous snow maps, at least until we see whether or not the other models continue to trend colder or correct back warmer (though often, CAD situations are somewhat underdone — especially classic CADs, which this most certainly is not). Keep for now, but have the toss lever ready.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z shows some sleet than to rain, more realistic to me

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh god Fv3 still has this thing .... if it’s wrong this thing is trashier than trash Itself

 

[jackendrickwx]

FV3 is coming in timely on pivotal now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol ain’t no way I’m getting 2 inches of snow