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Pattern Fabulous February

Myfrotho704_ said:
Wouldn’t this allow that possible storm to cut if this continues ?
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12z eps through day ten is very active like the gefs
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Tarheel1 said:
No, the press in the NE , pushing SW on the animation is great, acts like a 50/50 low/ block, poor mans -NAO!! Just where we want it now!!
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Just saying cause the epac is probably ? and -PNA won’t help, we’re gonna need to thread a flu shot needle
 
Nice to know there’s something to at least watch for some in this dreadful pattern...
 
pcbjr said:
Yes, Larry; concur; just hate being the echo of somber news ...
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The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
 
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In this pattern, SERidge (duh), Golfer from AR, Memphis members, and perhaps also the NC Triad folks/NC mtns (semi-duh) have the best shot at at least a little snow among the regular posters.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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Very bad, if I may editorialize ...
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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I just hope it's a one year thing and not one of those that lasts for several years.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z consensus, including the EPS, is still showing the same general idea, N Pac blocking high/-PNA/SER. Tick tock it refuses to change El Nino/more favorable MJO phases be danged. So, still no good hints through 2/25 on the EPS regarding the general pattern. Blocking patterns are often very stubborn and this is a blocking pattern that is blocking what normally would be an El Nino/favorable MJO induced favorable for SE pattern. This is one of the most persistent, stable patterns I've seen in quite a while. Sometimes they're good and sometimes they're bad. This one (-PNA/+AO/+NAO) is bad.
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We're definitely not in neutral ENSO anymore even though the sensible impacts in the SE US aren't what you'd expect in an El Nino February, you simply don't get 3 successive westerly wind burst events, and one w/ > 20 m/s westerly wind anomalies at the dateline in the central Pacific w/o the background state having been already predisposed towards an El Nino to support convection there that non linearly reinforces the subseasonally-induced wind anomaly.

This gigantic dateline westerly wind burst is going to set off a pretty substantial downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that'll kickstart a legitimate moderate-strong El Nino later this year and into the winter of 2019-20.
u.anom.30.5S-5N (11).gif


The RMM phase regression maps from Roundy's site don't line up as well when centered over the current period of Feb 10, but w/ early March. The only difference between the regression maps from now vs early March is the OLR (shading) is stronger & further east in the Pacific which better matches the current base state that's either neutral ENSO w/ a clear cut (ongoing) advancement towards El Nino or weak El Nino.
Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 4.13.09 PM.png

It's amazing how well this map predicts/corresponds to the current pattern.

Screen Shot 2019-02-10 at 4.16.12 PM.png
 
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