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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Myfrotho704_ said:
This is the best winter storm signal we’ve had all winter inside day 10, yet it’s still sorta hard to get excited
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I'm actually excited even though it is highly unlikely I'll get anything wintry here just based on climo (though I'm always hoping another very rare wintry event will happen here). I'm excited for the SE in general and also for just getting the very elusive cold, which usually does make it down here! I'm ready for ole man winter to rock and show that he's got lots more to say.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
I’m sorry I’m new here and learning what signal for when and where?
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Later next week there’s a signal for maybe wintry weather, but it’s not set it stone, and mostly anyone in the SE is at play rn, (ofc areas down to far south deal with climo going against them, this thing could still easily disappear, right now it’s just tracking it and take those runs with a grain of rice, and looking for trends, especially at H5
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Later next week there’s a signal for maybe wintry weather, but it’s not set it stone, and mostly anyone in the SE is at play rn, (ofc areas down to far south deal with climo going against them, this thing could still easily disappear, right now it’s just tracking it and take those runs with a grain of rice, and looking for trends, especially at H5
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I appreciate it, are we waiting for any new models tonight to keep the trend?
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
I appreciate it, are we waiting for any new models tonight to keep the trend?
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No problem man ?? And Well, models are gonna be shaky at this range and will likely lose it, the bring it back, we should sorta know what’s going on early next week, gfs has been improving, gefs is improving, euro looks good, let’s see what they show tonight, in this setup you don’t want energy to get stuck in the Southwest, you want it to eject, look for that on a 500mb chart
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
No problem man ?? And Well, models are gonna be shaky at this range and will likely lose it, the bring it back, we should sorta know what’s going on early next week, gfs has been improving, gefs is improving, euro looks good, let’s see what they show tonight, in this setup you don’t want energy to get stuck in the Southwest, you want it to eject, look for that on a 500mb chart
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Is this a system moving west to East with cold air or after cold air has moved through?
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Is this a system moving west to East with cold air or after cold air has moved through?
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More so nearly at the same time, a little bit before the storm comes in, nice bombing low the southeast Canada is the source for your cold, which the storm can then run into, but this is just one solution from the euro DECFC05D-D51A-438B-9E0E-33A64C1B99DF.jpeg
 
mrdaddyman said:
Serious question SD. How is the SER a benefit in this situation? I've read the same thing posted on this forum a couple of times before about other storm systems but It wasn't explained. Just trying to learn, thanks.
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Short story first then a longer story below. Basically what little bit of a SER there is, is allowing the sfc front to move south but its delaying the passage of the fronts aloft meaning we keep a warm air advection pattern going inspite of an arctic front moving through. This in a general sense will give you clouds and some light precip but with the STJ in play and the 500mb flow tapped into the Pacific and out of the WSW we are able to funnel low amplitude waves in and enhance precip chances
Longer answer:
In this case the SER is acting like a road block. As the initial trough moves through the lakes and into the NE the sfc front gets propelled south. While its moving south the bc energy in the NE scoots off shore and the flow becomes more west to east. This flow parallel to the front causes it to slow but still inch south, given the fact the models are showing 1040+ building in behind the front you will still get a nice south push even with some SER at 500mb. Now as you go up a couple of levels into the 850 and 700mb levels the fronts and troughs are being slowed and stopped gradually farther north. At 162 on the euro the 850mb front was located along I20 and the 700mb front along I40, this means you are getting moist air moving in at one or both levels. This also gives you convergent boundaries aloft to further aid in lift and focus for precipitation. As you go above this into the 500mb level you have a WSW flow which is tapped into the Pacific and we are able to bring shortwaves embedded in the STJ into the region. Additionally the fight between the SE ridge and the low in the northeast means we have a steep height gradient across the east, this leads to more channeled sheared vorticity and limits amplification so we are having to worry about energy in the flow being too strong and causing things to trend NW. Long story short on H5, you get into a situation where yo could have numerous small impulses moving in the flow and batches of heavier precipitation as these move west to east. Finally as you get into the 300 and 200mb the heart of the STJ is running just to our north so we are able to capitalize on the additional jet dynamics and further enhance the lift.
 
SD said:
Short story first then a longer story below. Basically what little bit of a SER there is, is allowing the sfc front to move south but its delaying the passage of the fronts aloft meaning we keep a warm air advection pattern going inspite of an arctic front moving through. This in a general sense will give you clouds and some light precip but with the STJ in play and the 500mb flow tapped into the Pacific and out of the WSW we are able to funnel low amplitude waves in and enhance precip chances
Longer answer:
In this case the SER is acting like a road block. As the initial trough moves through the lakes and into the NE the sfc front gets propelled south. While its moving south the bc energy in the NE scoots off shore and the flow becomes more west to east. This flow parallel to the front causes it to slow but still inch south, given the fact the models are showing 1040+ building in behind the front you will still get a nice south push even with some SER at 500mb. Now as you go up a couple of levels into the 850 and 700mb levels the fronts and troughs are being slowed and stopped gradually farther north. At 162 on the euro the 850mb front was located along I20 and the 700mb front along I40, this means you are getting moist air moving in at one or both levels. This also gives you convergent boundaries aloft to further aid in lift and focus for precipitation. As you go above this into the 500mb level you have a WSW flow which is tapped into the Pacific and we are able to bring shortwaves embedded in the STJ into the region. Additionally the fight between the SE ridge and the low in the northeast means we have a steep height gradient across the east, this leads to more channeled sheared vorticity and limits amplification so we are having to worry about energy in the flow being too strong and causing things to trend NW. Long story short on H5, you get into a situation where yo could have numerous small impulses moving in the flow and batches of heavier precipitation as these move west to east. Finally as you get into the 300 and 200mb the heart of the STJ is running just to our north so we are able to capitalize on the additional jet dynamics and further enhance the lift.
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Whoa it does’t get any than that. Very nice explanation. We won’t have to worry about a warm nose either unless we get a low bombing out offshore.


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