Just border line irresponsible in my opinion. Weird stuff.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Euro Bleaklies: good news overall
- week 2: much colder by about 4-5 F vs Mon run with BN now but we already knew that based on much colder 2 week model runs last 2 days.
- weeks 3-4: colder by ~2 F with near normal vs AN Monday run
- weeks 5-6: way too far out to care but they are AN fwiw
- week 2: much colder by about 4-5 F vs Mon run with BN now but we already knew that based on much colder 2 week model runs last 2 days.
- weeks 3-4: colder by ~2 F with near normal vs AN Monday run
- weeks 5-6: way too far out to care but they are AN fwiw
February 12th, 2010 and January 9th and 10th, 2011 as well.
The former was well tracked for 10 days while the latter was at least 7 days.
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Nice leaps of victory, something may happen this run 
18Z GFS colder and closer call with what appears to be some light snow in some places but the H5 flow needs to be a more moist WSW and not this pretty dry W to WNW. Nothing big on this run but at least it is closer for the first wave
Now let's see if there is a 2nd wave later.
Now let's see if there is a 2nd wave later.
GSP biting ever so slightly...
but would be falling into cold-enough
air to bring some wintry precip. The fcst for Wed nite and Thursday
splits the difference, keeping a 20/30 pct chance of precip with
a p-type of mostly rain, but with a high elevation snow. As you
can imagine, this part of the fcst may change quite a bit between
now and then.
GFS moving in the wrong direction? ??
Let’s see if we can leave it cut off over Hawaii at 00z..
Let’s see if we can leave it cut off over Hawaii at 00z..
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Clearly they meant as a result of melting snow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Actually it might not be. I just needs to shake that low formation off. The last Euro run put that formation off the coast of N Cal so it's in the right direction.GFS moving in the wrong direction? ??
Am I wrong in thinking that big low cutoff in the SW won’t matter as long as this little piece in the southern branch comes in juicy with some weak overrunning?
Jessy89
Member
Honestly when was the last time the GFS has been reliable. The only question is will the Euro continue to show it the next run. Or will it go Poof? Time will tell but GFS I don’t trust at all.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well, that's more than the pretty much nothing on the last 3 GFS runs. So, it is an improvement for that model.
Cary_Snow95
Member
If I had to guess I think the gfs is moving through the northern energy and the trough to quickly. This allows the shortwave to get left behind and cutoff. If you watch the last few runs you can see it slowing the trough
ATLwxfan
Member
GFS hinted at last weekend’s surprise event about 5 or 6 days out. It’s not totally unreliable.
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Here are the daily HDDs for the E US from the new (2/13) Euro Weeklies in the far left column alongside those from the prior run (2/10) on the right side. Focus on the 2 HDD columns. Look how much colder they got today for 2/20-3, especially 2/20-1 which each increased by a whopping 11 HDDs! 11 degrees colder on those days over just a 3 day span of models is amongst the most rapid increases in week 2 you'll ever see. And, of course, that's why we suddenly now have a winter storm threat to follow for 2/21-2 vs none of the sort as of just 2-3 days ago.
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
�
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
�
| Date | HDD | HDD 30Y Climo | HDD 30Y Diff | CDD | CDD 30Y Climo | CDD 30Y Diff | HDD | CDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF-Weeklies | 2020-02-13 | |||||||
| 2020-02-13 | 23.20 | 25.07 | -1.87 | 1.54 | 0.35 | 1.19 | 20.29 | 1.51 |
| 2020-02-14 | 34.62 | 24.90 | 9.72 | 0.72 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 32.78 | 0.73 |
| 2020-02-15 | 34.02 | 24.72 | 9.30 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.21 | 33.26 | 0.58 |
| 2020-02-16 | 23.73 | 24.55 | -0.82 | 0.74 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 23.8 | 0.8 |
| 2020-02-17 | 20.52 | 24.35 | -3.83 | 0.99 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 18.09 | 1.08 |
| 2020-02-18 | 17.18 | 24.16 | -6.98 | 1.38 | 0.39 | 0.99 | 18.02 | 1.21 |
| 2020-02-19 | 23.71 | 23.98 | -0.27 | 1.28 | 0.39 | 0.89 | 20.95 | 1.09 |
| 2020-02-20 | 33.39 | 23.80 | 9.59 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 21.92 | 0.8 |
| 2020-02-21 | 32.14 | 23.59 | 8.55 | 0.33 | 0.41 | -0.08 | 20.74 | 0.62 |
| 2020-02-22 | 26.48 | 23.39 | 3.09 | 0.22 | 0.41 | -0.19 | 19.99 | 0.55 |
| 2020-02-23 | 23.26 | 23.18 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.42 | -0.29 | 20.76 | 0.49 |
| 2020-02-24 | 21.42 | 22.97 | -1.55 | 0.19 | 0.43 | -0.24 | 22.11 | 0.37 |
| 2020-02-25 | 19.84 | 22.75 | -2.91 | 0.40 | 0.43 | -0.03 | 21.35 | 0.37 |
| 2020-02-26 | 22.43 | 22.52 | -0.09 | 0.33 | 0.43 | -0.10 | 21.05 | 0.43 |
| 2020-02-27 | 25.25 | 22.31 | 2.94 | 0.31 | 0.44 | -0.13 | 23.28 | 0.42 |
| 2020-02-28 | 25.20 | 22.09 | 3.11 | 0.33 | 0.46 | -0.13 | 24.63 | 0.41 |
| 2020-02-29 | 26.60 | 22.09 | 4.51 | 0.34 | 0.46 | -0.12 | 24.66 | 0.44 |
| 2020-03-01 | 26.64 | 21.87 | 4.77 | 0.35 | 0.46 | -0.11 | 24.77 | 0.44 |
| 2020-03-02 | 25.91 | 21.64 | 4.27 | 0.36 | 0.47 | -0.11 | 23.15 | 0.4 |
| 2020-03-03 | 24.31 | 21.41 | 2.90 | 0.42 | 0.49 | -0.07 | 22.94 | 0.42 |
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Broken024
Member
Gefs looks improved to my untrained eyes
Scary setup but one that can certainly produce a multiple wave winter event. The release of the wave out west and its interaction with the trough in the Rockies will obviously make or break the event. This could easily go toward a cutter or a ho him rain event arriving after the high moves out. This has been the event we are looking for though where the SE ridge becomes a benefit versus a hindrance.
Broken024
Member
