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Pattern Fab Feb

GaWx said:
WxBell 12Z Euro Kuchera is much lighter in NC than SV 10:1. I wonder why the big diff. Anyone know?
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SV is 10:1 I'm sure plus not factoring in BL temps, ground temps etc. All the maps look nice but probably car topper at best, imby, with BL temps, unless it really bombs and can crash the column with heavy rates before it pulls out.
 
RBR71 said:
Euro AI trend
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Those are good trends. Let's see if we can keep them going. Some of us in the RDU snow hole would like to make up for the deficit we have compared to the rest of North Carolina and South Carolina if there is even the slightest chance.
 
If we do luck into anything with this, marginal BL temps and warm soil temps are going to put a dent into accumulations (and it’s late February so diurnal timing will factor in), so something to keep in mind. This could be a 5:1 ratio type deal of QPF to what actually sticks. Regardless, I’d be a little hyped if I were in NE NC / SE VA and if it really bombs out, rates for them could be high enough that the aforementioned factors don’t matter much. Looks somewhat promising and the trend is our friend. Figure it’s a 10% probability to be anything more than mood flakes here, though. High enough for me to watch and inevitably be disappointed in.

That’s what really hurts about the Triangle getting screwed out of the big dog a few weeks ago. You couldn’t have drawn up a better set of antecedent conditions, and we fumbled the bag. 💀
 
Freezes are looking likely for much of the SE Sun-Tue mornings with hard mid 20ish freezes quite possible in much of NC and other far inland locations 1-2 nights. This will be an interesting contrast due to the immediately preceding torch.
 
Forecasted high temp for Chattanooga is 76 tomorrow which could break the record for that date. All time Feb high temp was 82 in 2023 followed by back to back days of 81 in February of 2018.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
How quick those pieces of energy phase with make a big difference for inland locations, my guess is it was a little late on this run.


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It's an ensemble and I can't see the individual members, some probably early but more late and further ots maybe. Could be more members with BL temp issues too.
 
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18z GFS wallops eastern VA/Delmarva Sunday night…NE NC gets in on a little snow too


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Tahoe storm thoughts: Looking back I would say the EURO AI did a pretty dang good job on snow totals. GFS was inconsistent but not bad. EURO (regular run) was pretty good and the main GFS was consistently low (especially in the beginning). NAM was playing catch up the whole time. 3KM was not very good. HRRR was really good.
 
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