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Pattern Fab Feb

GaWx said:
WxBell 12Z Euro Kuchera is much lighter in NC than SV 10:1. I wonder why the big diff. Anyone know?
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SV is 10:1 I'm sure plus not factoring in BL temps, ground temps etc. All the maps look nice but probably car topper at best, imby, with BL temps, unless it really bombs and can crash the column with heavy rates before it pulls out.
 
RBR71 said:
Euro AI trend
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Those are good trends. Let's see if we can keep them going. Some of us in the RDU snow hole would like to make up for the deficit we have compared to the rest of North Carolina and South Carolina if there is even the slightest chance.
 
If we do luck into anything with this, marginal BL temps and warm soil temps are going to put a dent into accumulations (and it’s late February so diurnal timing will factor in), so something to keep in mind. This could be a 5:1 ratio type deal of QPF to what actually sticks. Regardless, I’d be a little hyped if I were in NE NC / SE VA and if it really bombs out, rates for them could be high enough that the aforementioned factors don’t matter much. Looks somewhat promising and the trend is our friend. Figure it’s a 10% probability to be anything more than mood flakes here, though. High enough for me to watch and inevitably be disappointed in.

That’s what really hurts about the Triangle getting screwed out of the big dog a few weeks ago. You couldn’t have drawn up a better set of antecedent conditions, and we fumbled the bag. 💀
 
Freezes are looking likely for much of the SE Sun-Tue mornings with hard mid 20ish freezes quite possible in much of NC and other far inland locations 1-2 nights. This will be an interesting contrast due to the immediately preceding torch.
 
Forecasted high temp for Chattanooga is 76 tomorrow which could break the record for that date. All time Feb high temp was 82 in 2023 followed by back to back days of 81 in February of 2018.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
How quick those pieces of energy phase with make a big difference for inland locations, my guess is it was a little late on this run.


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It's an ensemble and I can't see the individual members, some probably early but more late and further ots maybe. Could be more members with BL temp issues too.
 
4d9007dffa0f3e94212a7dc2eafa3ea1.gif

18z GFS wallops eastern VA/Delmarva Sunday night…NE NC gets in on a little snow too


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Tahoe storm thoughts: Looking back I would say the EURO AI did a pretty dang good job on snow totals. GFS was inconsistent but not bad. EURO (regular run) was pretty good and the main GFS was consistently low (especially in the beginning). NAM was playing catch up the whole time. 3KM was not very good. HRRR was really good.
 
0Z GFS Kuchera
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But CMC/Icon/UKMET have little to nothing in NE NC. What will King have to say? Edit: Doc says virtually no snow for you, NE NC. So, it’s GFS suite vs others at 0Z. It will change. We’ll see how.
 
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NWS GSP Official Guidance

After record warm temperatures expected Friday, not much in the way of snow in western NC discussed for the weekend:

Key message 3: A complex weekend setup brings more widespread rain
to the area on Saturday, and ushers in much colder air for the
start of the new workweek.

As more pronounced DPVA forcing arrives early Saturday morning and
interacts with the pre-existing baroclinic zone laid out across
the forecast area, a surface wave will develop within an area of
strong moist upglide, resulting in a resurgence in rainfall and
thick cloud cover early Saturday morning and persisting for most
of the day. Ensembles are now in much better agreement on an
early-morning onset, which certainly points to less chance of any
surface-based instability developing - confidence is increasing
that the setup will be more of a hybrid CAD-like configuration,
with a quasi-stationary boundary to our south, and rainfall
only stabilizing/reinforcing the surface wedge located over us.
Indeed, none of the operational guidance depicts any sbCAPE over
our southern zones, and the latest long-range ensembles depict a
<10% chance of significant instability over even our southernmost
counties.

Surface cyclogenesis appears likely somewhere over the eastern
Carolinas as the upper pattern rapidly evolves into a pronounced
longwave trough spanning the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS...with
the resultant surface low lifting up the Mid-Atlantic coast and
into New England on Sunday and Sunday night. In response, strong
low-level CAA will develop across the Carolinas Sunday, ushering
in a much colder, much drier cP air mass that will linger across
the region for much of next week. Temperatures Sunday, Monday,
and Tuesday nights could fall well into the 20s amid excellent
radiative cooling. Thereafter, the air mass will steadily modify,
and temperatures will climb to within a couple degrees of normal
on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
RBR71 said:
I think it's safe to say Weathernext has had it's issues with this one, has jumped all around. And now this is the farthest south it has been 🤷‍♂️
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I think this is the first model run to show snow over most of E NC as opposed to just NE NC? Interesting. I wish I lived in Moyock for this one, which is something I say for literally every winter storm possibility these days.
 
GaWx said:
GEFS trends: any opinions?
H5:
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Clown:
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similar to the ml mauler in that it's a potent trough that closes off the coast and tilt/where it closes obviously play a lot into the final solution. once again- a storm where small tweaks have high leverage. i'd expect more jumps, and just like the mauler, plenty of deterministic whiffs. the consensus with the mauler was a little stronger that *something* major would happen somewhere. with this storm that's less obvious.

its different in that the wholesale setup is warmer- wetter snow but likely more qpf. i do like that it will immediately warm up and any snow will be gone in a few days. we did the whole 3 week snowpack here in richmond and i hated it.
 
This storm is a tricky one as far as predicting which areas might receive accumulating snow. The ground temperatures will be less than ideal due to the warmer weather that the Carolinas have experienced during the past week or so and air temperatures will not be conducive for snow for much of the duration of the event. I'd feel pretty good about my chances of at least seeing snow if I lived in Northeastern North Carolina with the wrap around of precipitation meeting the cold air once the system exits the coast. This could be another Moyock Mauler if things fall in the right places.
 
These SV AI-Weathernext clown maps are for its ensemble mean as opposed to a single op run, correct? Can anyone confirm?

To illustrate how jumpy the SV AI-Weathernext clowns have been (as Met noted), check out this comparison:

6Z 2/17 run:
IMG_8372.png

6Z 2/19 run:
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Hasn’t this been a good ensemble based model this winter? Or am I mixed up with another?
 
GaWx said:
These SV AI-Weathernext clown maps are for its ensemble mean as opposed to a single op run, correct? Can anyone confirm?

To illustrate how jumpy the SV AI-Weathernext clowns have been (as Met noted), check out this comparison:

6Z 2/17 run:
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6Z 2/19 run:
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Hasn’t this been a good ensemble based model this winter? Or am I mixed up with another?
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Looks like it’s slowly been weeding out the beefed up members, the shift south on the latest run was interesting though.


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