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Pattern Fab Feb

1.37 west of Winston. I really wish those icebergs would melt off the deck on the north side of the house; but it looks like they're aiming to stay rent free until March.
 
Crazy Uncle is a little to overdone next Monday night.. Most models show a 2-3 day cooldown and perhaps one more 2-3 day stretch as we flip calendar to March. But if the CFS at 0z is right, then that's it. just expect normal temps plus or minus 1-2 degrees through mid March, as things stand now.

Right now, unless things change. I'm gonna take a shot throwing spuds in the ground early 1st week of March. roll the dice.

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Also looks like we have another wet weekend in route. Raleigh NWS has 50% + chance day and night Friday through Sunday.

Could this past weekend be the harbinger of things to come, next 12 months. El nino starting to flex. We've been on the dry bone side of the equation past 6+ months. May be seeing rubber band snap back other direction
 
NCSNOW said:
Also looks like we have another wet weekend in route. Raleigh NWS has 50% + chance day and night Friday through Sunday.

Could this past weekend be the harbinger of things to come, next 12 months. El nino starting to flex. We've been on the dry bone side of the equation past 6+ months. May be seeing rubber band snap back other direction
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I feel like it aways does. We get in dry conditions for a bit, and it always eventually turns around and gets very wet. I haven't been concerned about water restrictions and drought since like the summer of 2008 or so? The pendulum of climatology always comes back around in my area.
 
The combo of a strong to moderate -PNA, strong +AO, and moderate to strong +NAO for the last few days of Feb and first few days of March per today’s GEFS is absolutely awful if you’re like me and prefer a BN dominated temp. pattern in the SE. However, the models still indicate there may still be a few chilly days then.
 
The last thirty days have been the 7th coolest with regard to mean air temp, 8th coldest regarding average high temp and 2nd driest with regards to average dew point.

An absolutely remarkable, long lasting cold snap. It only lacks one tenth of a degree from being the coldest we've seen since 1981.
 
Not to be Negative but we are done here aren't we? 16" Season including Sleet, but man was really hoping to get to 20" on the season that's when you start talking elite imo. Double digit total seasons are like a SW16 but if you can get to 20", I feel like that's a Final 4 run
 
Temps lagging a little more than I expected today. 58 so far. Looks like the 12z Euro still refuses to bite on a rainmaker Sunday
 
What a great last 25 days. Wish we could sneak one more winter system in, but we exceeded our totals in the western piedmont.
Mid 70's on Friday and back to 40's for highs next week.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Not to be Negative but we are done here aren't we? 16" Season including Sleet, but man was really hoping to get to 20" on the season that's when you start talking elite imo. Double digit total seasons are like a SW16 but if you can get to 20", I feel like that's a Final 4 run
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Probably but too early to rule anything out. No telling what the pattern will be as we get into mid/late March, though climo obviously starts to work strongly against us then.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
We will have freezes but winter weather after February 15 is not a thing anymore (outside the mountains) new norm with the patterns we get into this time of year now, trees blooming, grass growing, people planting their gardens, things you didn’t see until late March 20 years ago here. Even we had good snows into late March, one of our biggest snows was March 23rd 1968 we got 9 - 11 inches. You won’t get that February 23rd now. Wishing for snow this late in the year is just heartbreak. View attachment 194175
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March 12th 2022
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February 17th 2021
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February 19th 2025
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Got another inch later this night in Feb 2025 from a super clipper that was producing lake effect snow streamers off of the lakes at the land between the lakes. While it may not snow further south as much in February and later, It certainly isn’t only the mountains that gets snow in February and early March.
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SD said:
Op euro going with a scand to ural ridge may drop enough troughing to set off an eamt event and extend the pac jet around d20. Its one op run and the gfs suite hates the idea, so it's meh for now, but a mid to late March epo/pna ridge makes sense
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Euro Weeklies are mild first half of March and then cool to NN last 2 weeks fwiw. So, coldest part could be in 2nd half because 1st part so mild.
 
RDU finished with 0.96" liquid precipitation yesterday, extending the drought of 1"+ QPF days. RDU has not had more than an inch of precipitation on a single day since August 11, 2025, more than 6 months ago.
 
GaWx said:
Euro Weeklies are mild first half of March and then cool to NN last 2 weeks fwiw. So, coldest part could be in 2nd half because 1st part so mild.
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Watch us have another cool spring like last year. I couldn't even swim until June.
 
Although today was AN mainly due to the low, it felt a good bit cooler, especially closer to the coast with a steady breeze off the cold ocean and most noticeably later in the afternoon. I love it when the nearby ocean lingers cold from a prior cold period and keeps the coast chilly.

Looking forward to a chilly walk this evening.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Watch us have another cool spring like last year. I couldn't even swim until June.
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I remember all the people talking about their summer was ruined because it was still raining in August here. We had that week in mid August where it was near 70 degrees and rainy for days

Ever since then it's been pretty much an endless torch how ironic. I remember remarking about how warm the fall was. It's been a constant storyline here besides that week in January
 
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Models are backing off from their original depiction of a highly amplified phase 3-4-5 MJO orbit. Instead straddling the COD at best. I still think a new MJO wave will emerge in phase 6 and travel through phase 7-8-1(whether it hits another brick wall in phase 8 is anyone's guess) which'll constructively interfere with the West Pacific equatorial Warmpool around 160 degrees east, reignite WWB's, and reestablish our -EPO/+TNH pattern in March!

Right now the MJO being in the Eastern Hemisphere is destructively interfering with that but once it reemerges in the West, Old Man Winter should quickly reestablish himself for two-three weeks!
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