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Pattern Fab Feb

GaWx said:
Followup to my last post about WxBell Euro AIFS ens means overdoing snow: it can also be seen over land. Here’s an example from the 18Z. Check the 1 foot snowfall over a part of N LA for member 46 falling between hours 174 and 180 while temperatures are AN, which of course is impossible in reality:

View attachment 193882

Temperatures there at both hours 174 and 180 are AN:

View attachment 193884

View attachment 193883
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That's one heck of a hail storm!
 
NWS Raleigh on Friday

KEY MESSAGE 4... An unsettled pattern is expected mid to late
week, bringing increasing precipitation chances and a potential
for a wintry mix on Friday

Several shortwave disturbances will move across the region mid to
late week, resulting in multiple rounds of precipitation. The first
chance arrives Wednesday, when temperatures in the 60s will support
all liquid precipitation. Another round associated with a cold front
will move in Thursday afternoon into the evening, with temperatures
gradually falling as a cooler airmass filters in behind the front.
Showers are expected to persist into Friday morning, with a
rain/snow mix possible, mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
A weak area of low pressure lifting north from the south on Saturday
may bring isolated light showers, with temperatures generally
remaining above freezing.
 
NCSNOW said:
Icon, like Canadian last night has ice with snow on top. It actually windes this booger up pretty good on the coast. Euro and euro ensembles getting more an more company to come on board.
Gotta see them have it 120 under, for me to buy in. But its attn grabbing for sure
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U are at the window looking in so go ahead and buy lol
 
0Z UKMET 132: similar to 0Z CMC but just rain on this and later maps. Then again, 850s are <0 and similar to those for CMC. UK Pivotal snow algo could be off.
Pivotal snow maps in general are questionable imho. Often too much from counting all wintry as snow, but this case is if anything, underdone.
 
GaWx said:
How do you explain the WxBell Euro AIFS showing 12” of snow while temperatures are in the 60s? These snow maps have major algo issues.
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I don't think it's much different than having the 0 line in Lake City and it's raining across N. Ga. I've seen that more than I care to. To me the models, like the clown maps, are mostly for entertainment, until a few days out.
 
Just insane temperature differences across NC and SC yesterday and today despite not having a traditional wedge setup. The arctic front didn't really dive south it just continued east. NC and the Pee Dee/Grand Strand counties of SC were locked at or below 40 yesterday with cold weather advisories overnight. Places like Columbia/Charleston/etc were well into the 60s knocking on the door of 70.
 
Is anyone in the Greensboro area getting any snow under those slightly heavier radar returns? Could just be virga as GSO airport is reporting overcast conditions. The sun has been peeking out here in Raleigh.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Is anyone in the Greensboro area getting any snow under those slightly heavier radar returns? Could just be virga as GSO airport is reporting overcast conditions. The sun has been peeking out here in Raleigh.
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No. It has the look, but its so dry. Car temp is sitting at 25 still as we approach noontime

Edit im back at house county line area below gso. So may be,may not up there?
 
CyclonicFury said:
12z GFS looking icy over the NC piedmont, low took a big jump south from the 06z run
View attachment 193914
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a98ae831d1119c05ed6291d757779eee.gif

Large shift south in 5 runs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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