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Pattern Fab Feb

We made it to 37 at the airport today. Back down in 20s with clouds right now. If they clear we will hit single digits again. Supose to hit 40 tommorow , we shall see. Its 30s rest of week. Should scratch a couple 50- low 50s next week. Couple weeks away from usually starting seeders inside. Planting spuds early March. Might have to delay a week or so.
 
Ladies and gentlemen it is with great pleasure I present to you the Miami Freeze of 2026. This is the first time I've seen frost here since 2010!

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The system valentines weekend is quite the signal. With the pattern structure and time of year it doesn't take significant changes to move that from winter to severe and vice versa. Certainly one to watch right now.

Otherwise though quite the hostile trend on the last 72 hours of models. Warning shots probably should have been the double troughs on the extended models but what can you do.
 
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SD said:
The system valentines weekend is quite the signal. With the pattern structure and time of year it doesn't take significant changes to move that from winter to severe and vice versa. Certainly one to watch right now.

Otherwise though quite the hostile trend on the lastv72 hours. Warning shots probably should have been the double troughs on the extended model but what can you do.
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Hopefully we can start getting something to track again. I have the itch for one more. What am I supposed to do at work all day if I can log on here and see the latest model run?
 
SD said:
The system valentines weekend is quite the signal. With the pattern structure and time of year it doesn't take significant changes to move that from winter to severe and vice versa. Certainly one to watch right now.

Otherwise though quite the hostile trend on the last 72 hours of models. Warning shots probably should have been the double troughs on the extended models but what can you do.
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Yeah I've already seen posts here about it could be severe weather or snow depending on where you live

But other people are like it's not happening on the cold side anyway

I just want something to track soon it's way way too early for warm and dry...
 
Brent said:
Yeah I've already seen posts here about it could be severe weather or snow depending on where you live

But other people are like it's not happening on the cold side anyway

I just want something to track soon it's way way too early for warm and dry...
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Someone on this board is going to be tired of precipitation by mid March. I would assume it's you, mack or the TN posters
 
SD said:
Someone on this board is going to be tired of precipitation by mid March. I would assume it's you, mack or the TN posters
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Lol I hope so... Something has to give because like the models right now ain't it. I mean I'm fine with a week or two break but this looks like a prolonged thing

The end of the GFS has a low in North Dakota. That's about as bad as it gets
 
The sad thing about the coming Eastern CONUS warmup is that even if we return to a favorable pattern beyond mid-month, we are going to lose most of the gorgeous Midwestern snowpack, making it that much more difficult to score in the deep South as winter wanes.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The sad thing about the coming Eastern CONUS warmup is that even if we return to a favorable pattern beyond mid-month, we are going to lose most of the gorgeous Midwestern snowpack, making it that much more difficult to score in the deep South as winter wanes.
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Looks like the period around mid-month might be interesting for AL/GA. Some hints of a gulf low. Not sure if it will be cold enough, though.
 

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superjames1992 said:
Looks like a warm storm to me. 😢

View attachment 193533
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yeah. The cold is back north and west at this point and seems if we do see a big storm around this time period it seems it would favor the Ohio valley maybe into the NE. Wouldn’t eliminate the upper mid south or WNC just yet. I like the idea that cold rushes back in to the east for a period after this. Maybe the last hoorah for us.
 
Mid-month looks like a west to east slider set up with high likelihood of wedging. Question is whether or not a storm tracks far enough south for us to win. Cold air source region also doesn’t look ideal but it’s still workable with a favorable track and wedging.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Golf course ponds are all completely frozen over

Last time was probably 2018 if memory serves me View attachment 193517
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Maybe I need to play this weekend. All those balls I generally hit in the ole pond, would skid on across.

The river here has been frozen for over a week, solid.

I saw the Tuskeseegee river near Cullowhee freeze over in March post Blizzard of 93. Seeing mtn rivers freeze is something else. That water is on the move, hard to accomplish.
 
Looking at indices, the progged solid -PNA by midmonth would be a huge challenge for E US cold/snow lovers: hopefully this like others this winter won’t verify!
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rburrel2 said:
Mid-month looks like a west to east slider set up with high likelihood of wedging. Question is whether or not a storm tracks far enough south for us to win. Cold air source region also doesn’t look ideal but it’s still workable with a favorable track and wedging.
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Likely will be possibly Severe weather threat for the SE. If I had to bet, Our Winter weather is over
 
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